Phil Lilley

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Phil Lilley last won the day on December 10 2016

Phil Lilley had the most liked content!


About Phil Lilley

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  • Birthday 09/19/1958

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    Upper Lake Taneycomo
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    Pursuit of God, His majesty, His greatness--with all of my heart, soul and might.

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  1. Now Steve is Little Rock. Table Rock Corp was not on the call so... I hope they get their reports right. A lot of people depend on it, above and below the dam.
  2. I'm sorry that's not what the Corps is telling people. Was on a conference call with Steve Bays from Little Rock 3 hours ago and he was very frustrated with the "rumor mill" of false information going around. This front that's going through they think will dump 2-3 inches of rain. Following that, intermitten rain till the system passes. Granted, that was at 11 am but from what I'm seeing on live radar and live precipitation maps, that's exactly what's happening. He thinks that Table Rock can handle what's fallen and what they think will fall in the next 18 hours. TR will rise but not to those levels. He would not, though, give any numbers, guesses. He said it was like guessing the lottery.
  3. Yea they got hammered. That's not in the Beaver watershed, it is?
  4. Weather service is saying the the front developing and moving through the area Joplin to Anderson right now could add 2-3 inches of rain to that area. They're saying this rain will be split between watersheds. Corps says with the rain on the ground, TR's release is handling what's coming in to Table Rock. The tone was optimistic that the dams can handle what's coming in unless the front stalls over the watershed and dumps 10 inches of rain on the area which they do not think will happen. It's moving slow but it is moving and trending north a bit.
  5. I sure hope you're right. That would be awesome! But there's a big front just to the west of NW Ark that's training big time. We'll see what that brings here in the next couple of hours.
  6. I don't think the creeks are muddy... we haven't gotten that much rain.
  7. That was not written by anyone who has any authority like the Corps... just shows you you can't trust what's on Wikipedia. There's an elevation, just above 933-34 feet, where the electric motors are housed on the outside of the dam on the TR side. If those motors get wet/submerged, the flood gates are rendered useless and the water will go where it wills. Then the only alternative is the aux gates. His numbers might be right on that gate but Point Lookout wouldn't be impacted.
  8. A good map to watch
  9. A guy on the conference call this morning, from Berry County, asked Steve Bays (USCG Little Rock) if he thought it would be ok if they held a tournament out of M or Shell Knob (?) can't remember which one. Steve said it would be a nasty day, lots of storms... he wouldn't suggest it. I guess he was serious!
  10. If anyone can find something that shows close to realtime precipitation amounts, that would be helpful to those who are watching this storm move through. KY3 has something like that but was way off during the last rain.
  11. Just got off a conference call with the National Weather Service and the Corps. Here's the gust of the news. Storms will form tonight between 7-8 pm on the Mo Ark border, may be close to the Branson area instead of further in NW Ark like they thought yesterday. This would be a good thing because some of the rain would fall past Table Rock's watershed into the Taneycomo/Bull Shoals area. Expecting 1-2 inches of heavy rain with the initial front. Then 3 inches is expected for Saturday into Sunday morning with totals of 3-6 inches area wide. That's the official forecast - 3-6 inches with isolated spots of up to 8-10 inches. The NWS did say that there's one weather model that is showing a shift of the heaviest rain north of our watershed - up from the Joplin to Warsaw area. But he warned that this is just one possibility that they are watching. He sounded cautiously optimistic. So there is some hope that this won't be the catastrophic event that was feared yesterday. But we won't know till the rain is on the ground. They are releasing 15,000 cfs at Table Rock and will stay at that release till Table Rock reaches 920 feet in which they will increase to 20,000 cfs. At 930 feet, the flow will increase to whatever they deem appropriate to keep the water from breaching the dam.
  12. No. And it won't for some time. We had a TU mtg at the dam tonight. I asked Bryan of the hatchery how close it got past winter to the trout pools. He said one foot from the first brown trout pool. Hope this one doesn't flood the hatchery.
  13. I know you Table Rock guys only watch this forum so you might not see my posting on the rain forecast. I was on a conference call with the NWS out of Springfield. "We are extremely confident" in the models they're seeing right now. I posted a forecast map last night that showed very little rain this weekend. I guess I don't watch these maps enough to know they can change at a moment's notice. This event could easily be the worse in the chain of lake's history.
  14. They predicted the James River will reach 40 ft over flood stage...
  15. Weather service is now calling for 8 inches of rain in the Beaver/Table Rock area. Very bad news.