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Al Agnew

Some amazing preliminary observations of the flood records

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Any time that rain comes down heavily vs. over a period of time (3 inches in 2-3 days is way different than 3" in 10 hours) there is going to be more runoff.  

So saying that "on such and such day back in 1945 we got 5 inches of rain" doesn't mean much, and can't be compared to a day where 3" fell in 5 hours and then a few hours later 2" fell in a hour and a half.  

That's easy to illustrate using a glass of water and a sponge on a tilted cookie sheet.   Rainfall is usually recorded over a 24 hour period instead of hourly.

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I don't disagree with that one bit wrench. My point was that an apples-to-apples comparison of rainfall (affected watersheds, volume, frequency, intensity, etc) and development (locations, type, stream gage proximity, etc) to the historical flood events - or lack thereof - would be very informative on the investigation as to root cause. 

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13 minutes ago, moturkey said:

I don't disagree with that one bit wrench. My point was that an apples-to-apples comparison of rainfall (affected watersheds, volume, frequency, intensity, etc) and development (locations, type, stream gage proximity, etc) to the historical flood events - or lack thereof - would be very informative on the investigation as to root cause. 

Yeah it would be interesting to know, for conversation sake, but seriously....What could you do about it ?

There is undeniably a larger amount of Earth that never gets wet because it's covered in concrete and asphalt, but nobody is going to start jackhammering up roads/sidewalks/parking lots and plant grass there anytime soon.  ?

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11 hours ago, fishinwrench said:

Yeah it would be interesting to know, for conversation sake, but seriously....What could you do about it ?

Not sure what to do about it, but what could I do with it? Well, for starters I could serve it up with a smug grin every time the Al Gore types point to flooding like this and scream "GLOBAL WARMING!!!!" from the cozy confines of their 'safe spaces.'

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12 hours ago, moturkey said:

I'm a natural skeptic of "global warming" or "climate change" or whatever the hell its being called now. No doubt this past weekend was an outlier for precipitation, but I put far more stock in the theory (whose? I dunno... maybe just mine) that urban sprawl, development, and man-made changes to topography are far more likely culprits of the increased frequency and intensity of flooding seen in recent history. More impervious pavement/structures, less water-soaking florae, and unnatural levees that compound up-stream river levels are the true reason we are witnessing the recent historical events. I'd be curious to see a comparison of data that shows historical rainfall in the same watersheds during the periods Al highlighted. My hunch is that big downpours like we just saw would have had a far less significant impact 50 years ago. I'm not trying to spark a political debate, but am curious what others think. 

Them corn fields sucked up a lot more water than the asphalt and concrete does. All the storm sewers from the malls , industrial parks and new home construction may have something to do with it.  You Think ?

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Can someone clue me in on an ignorance block that I have?

It's like 40° below zero at the polar ice caps (I actually have no idea...but I know it's colder than cold).  So things warming up there probably just means that now it's only 30° below zero, right?   When did ice start melting at 30° below zero ?

Or am I just stupid and the actual average temp there is tetering at a balmy 28-30° ?

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Here's another potentially stupid question....and please don't anybody lose their cool on me here, because this one is "on the edge" and I know I'm not supposed to "go there"... but it's driving me crazy. 

For those that truly believe.....Are we now capable of changing God's plan for the earth ? 

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I know this is a fishing site and not a political site. I still don't understand how someone can take scientific data and make it political. Facts are facts and data is data.

As the late George Carlin once said "of course the planet is getting warmer, it's been doing that since the last ice age".

Anyway, I grew up in Nebraska and live in the St. Joseph area. I remember the 70's and 80's. When we had temps below freezing for months, below zero for weeks, and it would snow before Christmas and not melt till March. Not to mention the wind chill 40 or 50 below zero. You couldn't step outside without your nostrils freezing. I remember working outside with ice on my beard and mustache. Frostbite was very common, you warmed up you vehicle for at least 10 minutes. Now it dips below zero for for a day or two. If it snows, it's melted in a few days. I bought a snow blower several years ago and use it an average of two times a year. Only once this past winter, after a two inch snowfall. Basically all I did was rearrange my gravel. We used to have a snow pack for months. I actually mowed my yard in December, the past couple years. 

I remember a Nebraska law, that if you got stuck and didn't have studded tires or chains, you got a ticket. Now studs are illegal. Of course front wheel drive helped.  There were snowmobile dealers everywhere, now I know of none. There were 3 in Falls City, a city of 5000.  I don't even know of any person, that has one, now. I used to ice fish every winter until the 90's. Now, the ice isn't safe, if there is any ice.

I'm sure there are weather cycles, maybe that's all any of this is.

Don't get me wrong, I like the mild winters, especially since I'm getting older.

I don't think the flooding has anything to do with climate change. After all it's April and May, that's when we supposed to get heavy rains. But, I think there is something to this climate change. 

I do know one thing, the floods down there has really screwed up my plans this month. Guess I'll just lake fish for crappie, instead.

just my 2 cents 

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