Tim Smith

That's your right, Muddy. But you should realize that the data and science being used to project 90 years is different from what's used for the 5 day projections. You should also realize that the projections made a little over a decade ago for your region of the country called for generally higher temperatures, more intense and less frequent rain events and all of that has born out to be true. http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp//Library/nationalassessment/overviewmidwest.htm So you're free stick to your skepticism and maybe you have more pressing things that climate to deal with just now, but the people who are telling you we've got a problem have a much better record than your weatherman.

The Bipartisan Policy Center created this web site to deal with climate change. The mainline groups keeping outdoor sports alive in America are very clear where they stand. http://www.seasonsend.org/

Agreed. Oh, by the way you can also add Pheasants Forever, Quail Unlimited, Trout Unlimited, Amercian Sportfish Association, The Wildlife Society, The Izaak Walton League, The Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies and The American Fisheries Society to B.A.S.S. in publically supporting this bill. Brace yourselves. Sanity has broken loose. http://www.trcp.org/assets/pdf/S1881_Support.pdf

Didn't accomplish anything? Ok well the issue is in plain sight and being discussed. Draw your own conclusions. As long as the topic is relevant and until the yahoos come into to sabotage the thing with personal attacks, Phil has been a staunch defender of free speech on the forum. Someone will probably drop in and sabotage this thread, but the kind of person they are will be obvious. The shame is theirs. The kinds of issues Al is pointing out here will come home to roost in the Ozarks in the decades ahead. Shrinking ranges for cold water fish, spotted bass competition advantages, increased effects of larger less frequent storms...all those things are on the way or already here. Past attempts to bring up adaptation in here have always been trampled under the political garbage. Maybe now that B.A.S.S. is on board, people will actually listen...or try to get the conservation coordinator fired (more likely). There is no sane reading of the data that does not conclude that the climate is changing and there are consequences of that. No matter what the cause, it's time to brace for more change. Natural resource researchers have been using the limited pot of funds they get to look into this issue for years. B.A.S.S. is finally catching up. Good for them. Good for the Wildlife Management Institute. They finally agree with 97% of the National Academy of Science that we'd better take this seriously.

You can choose to ignore that this topic has been thoroughly excoriated, defamed, twisted, sabotaged and distorted on this forum and elsewhere to the point that the moderators have set a policy of having it removed whenever it comes up... ...that would indeed be pretty immature. So would ignoring a topic that is going to affect us and our children for decades and centuries to come. Keep throwing the eggs. I've stopped caring.

If it's childish to push recreational fishing to face the issues of the 21st century, hand me the bib. I'll wear it as long as necessary.

Notice that the emphasis here is on mitigating effects. Governments and businesses all over the world have been doing this kind of thing for over a decade now. Welcome to the real world, B.A.S.S. From the American Fisheries Society newsfeed (edited): Sportsmen Promote Adaptation Strategies to The Topic Which Shall Not Be Named (TTWSNBN). In letter to Senate leaders, hunters and anglers praise elements of the SAFE Act that would enable responsive management of fish and wildlife populations WASHINGTON - Prominent sportsmen's groups spoke out in support of measures in proposed U.S. Senate legislation that would help minimize the impacts of TTWSNBN and variability on fish and wildlife, the Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership announced today. The Safeguarding America's Future and Environment (SAFE) Act, S. 1881, would require federal resource agencies to plan for the projected long-term effects of TTWSNBN and encourage states to prepare natural resources adaptation plans while ensuring that these plans are guided by the best available science. In a letter <http://www.trcp.org/assets/pdf/S1881_Support.pdf> to the bill's co-sponsors, Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse and Max Baucus, the sportsmen expressed concern about the future of hunting and angling in the face of increasing human development along with the impacts of TTWSNBN . "We strongly support legislative approaches, such as those in the SAFE Act, that recognize the reality of TTWSNBN and create the national leadership and structure to minimize its anticipated effects," said Noreen Clough, director of conservation of B.A.S.S. and signatory of the letter. "Our groups have been recommending the adoption of similar standards for fish and wildlife adaptation for years, and we urge these elements to be included in any forthcoming TTWSNBN legislation." "Sportsmen are often the first to notice the impacts of our changing TTWSNBN , which already is affecting where and how we hunt and fish," said Dr. Steve Williams, president of the Wildlife Management Institute, a signatory of the sportsmen's letter, and former director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. "We commend the science-based approach that underlies the SAFE Act, and we urge the Senate to do its part to uphold the public's hunting and angling opportunities by advancing the adaptation components of this legislation without delay." Maintaining ecosystems capable of supporting fish and wildlife populations is critical to the nation's health, <http://www.trcp.org/assets/pdf/The_Economic_Value_of_Outdoor_Recreation.pdf > economy and natural services such as flood control, water filtration and groundwater security. With each passing season, the need to develop strategies to help fish and wildlife adapt to a changing TTWSNBN becomes more pressing. Guided by the members of its TTWSNBN Working Group, the TRCP is engaged in ensuring that the issue of TTWSNBN and fish and wildlife adaptation are properly addressed in congressional legislation. "Abundant outdoor opportunities, including hunting and fishing, are the dividends we reap when we exercise responsible management of our natural resources," said TRCP Climate Change Initiative Manager Bill Geer, "and the fish and wildlife provisions in the SAFE Act set the course for on-the-ground actions that sustain these resources and consequently our sporting traditions. Sportsmen and professional fish and wildlife managers strongly support this pragmatic approach to resource conservation."

Nope. Top print was bigger than my hand and one finger in the front four is slightly forward, like a human palm and there are no claw prints. That's a cat and the size makes it a mountain lion. Middle one has similar configuration with more classicaly rounded toes and is small. That makes it a bobcat. The bottom one has two equally paired middle toes with claw prints showing. That makes it a canid...size suggests a coyote.

Mountain lion, bobcat, coyote (probably coyote...it's a little big to be red or grey fox but definitely not a dog). One thing I notice about this place...no raccoons.

This one was following a creek bed. It dropped briefly onto the trail and the the tracks disappeared into all the goo and shuffle of the snow shoe traffic. No cows here, but I've noticed how the coyotes just stand and a distance and drool over the mule deer. It's like they want to but they know they really can't.

If you ever wanted a good close look at monster mule deer, this is the place to do it. http://brooksmith.blogspot.com/2011/12/more-snow-tracking-at-roxborough-how.html

Sorry I was a little slow responding, KC. I generally pass through Mexico without fishing it so I'm not the right guy to ask about Cozumel. I do know the weather is great down there about then and November to February is generally the best time to be in Central America. This year I met a nice couple this year who run a little resort on the Big Thompson in the summer and run a little hotel in Cozumel in the winter. They were helpful fishing the Big Thompson and I'm sure they can set you up in Cozumel. You can find them here: laslunasinn@gmail.com This is their resort in Colorado. http://www.drippingsprings.com/

I suspect this conversation is going to fall prey to local idosyncracies. Fish have metabolic needs and they're rewarded or punished for meeting or not meeting those demands. All systems differ at least a bit in how risk/reward is distributed. How far they travel or if they travel during winter probably has a lot to do with the individual system and how stable and high temperatures are and how much food is there over the winter. The systems I know in Illinois do seem to have denser concentrations of fish in wintering holes and smaller streams have fewer fish when it's cold (although they tend to stack up around thermal refuge like sewage treatment plants and you can still catch a few in the deeper holes).

Now is the time for other states to get back in line with sanity and start listing their materials and submitting them for testing. How they ever got away with keeping these things out of the public domain for even a minute just boggles the mind. I did see today that there is a loophole in the Colorado law. Companies can apply to withhold "trade-secret" components of fracking material but they have to reveal the chemical family of any witheld components and they have to provide the exact compound name to any health professionals that suspect ground water contamination is affecting a patient. Hopefully the "chemical family" they report won't be a diffuse as "organic" and if things like "aromatic hydrocarbons" or other groups that include carcinogens start showing up in the lists, they'll be forced to provide the full list of ingredients.

Last week the EPA confirmed the first case of fracking chemicals contaminating groundwater in Colorado (first CONFIRMED case). This week in a stunning display of efficiency the Colorado legislature UNANIMOUSLY required all drilling companies to list their fracking ingredients. The governor is going to sign it and it's going to be law in Colorado immediately. http://www.thenewstribune.com/2011/12/13/1943689/colorado-approves-disclosure-of.html Still looking at the details but big kudos to the Colorado legislature. I guess when you live in a semi-arid region you don't mess around with ground water the way they do other places. What a breath of fresh air.

From the AFS web feed: Subject: Call for papers: Black Bass Diversity: Multidisciplinary Science for Conservation A special symposium is being organized to be held in conjunction with the Southern Division American Fisheries Society (SDAFS) Annual Meeting in Nashville, TN in February 2013. This symposium will emphasize the conservation need and diversity of black basses (genus Micropterus) in their native habitats. Of the nine described species or subspecies of black bass in North America, three were described in the past 12 years and more possibly exist as undescribed species (e.g., Bartram's bass and Cuatro Ciénegas bass). Many black bass populations have conservation issues related to genetic integrity and habitat degradation. Building on previous work, this symposium will highlight the conservation of native black basses in an AFS publication that contains accounts related to: • Biology/ecology/life history requirements • Habitat management and restoration • Conservation genetics • Fish populations, fisheries, and human dimensions The symposium organizers will target scientists for invited submissions to the symposium, but contributed abstracts that fit the theme of the symposium are encouraged and will also be considered for the symposium and book. If you are conducting research on a black bass species or unique population that can contribute to the understanding or conservation of black basses, feel free to contact the steering committee at BlackBassSymposium@myFWC.com for possible inclusion in the symposium. Authors of papers who want to be included in the publication must have their manuscript submitted by the date of the meeting. Abstracts (in plain text or MS-Word) are to be submitted to BlackBassSymposium@myFWC.com by 10/31/2012 and must include: 1. Type of presentation preferred (oral or poster) 2. To be considered for publication? (yes or no) 3. Presentation topic (select from below) • Biology/ecology/life history requirements • Habitat management and restoration • Conservation genetics • Fish populations, fisheries, and human dimensions 4. Title, in upper/lower case format 5. Author(s) name(s) and affiliation(s) as they should appear 6. Name of presenter, mailing address, phone, and email 7. Text of abstract in 300 words or less.

That's true, we're off topic. If this case really is taking on the "navigable streams" issue, this is indeed a very big deal. That is the ambiguous dividing line for water access in most of the Midwest.

If you've got a fishery where you'd like to monitor growth and condition of your fish, I can age them for you, teach you how to age your fish on your own, and send you an analysis all through the mail. Late fall/winter is a good time to collect scales to estimate fish growth. Subdivision ponds are especially easy to tackle. Larger systems can be handled as well. Most species with scales can be aged non-destructively. All bass and sunfish, walleye, trout... Contact information is provided here. http://brooksmith.blogspot.com/2011/11/on-fish-scales-individual-life-history.html

If you want to blame someone at the Corps, blame the early decision not to keep parts of the floodplain connected to the mainstem so floods have a place to spread out and keep the main channel water heights low. A levee system is always hard on the people downstream. If we had open floodplains, we'd also have less flooding downstream and much better fisheries in the main stem. Unfortunately, that much land isn't easy to come by and ironically, groups like duck hunters oppose it because it screws up their current waterfowl management strategies.

And happy Thanksgiving to you and yours, Mitch.

I think we're pretty clear on how these things work, thanks, 3wt. Cricket's hotdog fable, and your own text, pretty well make the point. There's fear out there because people are telling us to be afraid. Economies grow on confidence... ..and the shade of color shaking the righties of isn't brown. It's pink. Despite middle of the road policies (and I own a small business and I can tell you that NOTHING the president has done so far has adversely affected that). there's a wild eyed hysteria out there that we're suddenly going to become socialists. Pick your own adjective for the people who believe it (and see how closely it correlates to people who think Obama is a Muslim...lots of overlap there). Once you do that, pick a few choice words for the people who want to dismantle the EPA. I should send you the water quality data for Illinois that predates the Clean Water Act and the EPA. Things that get people upset these days were commonplace then. Sure let's keep the tax burden as low as possible... ...but there are taxes and then there are taxes. You want saving from what we might spend on conservation? Reach in your pocket and pull out the loose change. There's what you'll save on a per person basis from cutting conservation. Maybe that handful of change matters enough to somebody that they'll sit on their money, but that seems rather far fetched.

I agree some cuts are inevitable. The votes aren't there to keep everything intact and yes, some cuts are necessary. I also think discouragement is a luxury we can't afford. What are the options to that? So if/when government pulls back support, what's there in the private sector to keep the resource intact? Leases? Ecocertifications? It's not like there's no answer at all, it's just that they're not developed or well appreciated yet...and yes it's not clear they'll work. Some of those functions might roll back to smaller units of government at the state and county but in general they're in trouble too. It's time to get creative.

That's all fine, Gilly, but cuts are what's on the table and more cuts are probably coming after those.

Big business isn't racist, Mitch. That's not the point. The point is the right is promoting that and a bunch of other garbage for political advantage and it's long past time to stop cutting them slack for that nonsense. The Republicans New Hampshire legislature just put another birther issue on the table and they deserve the worst of whatever comes their way. Just like it's time to call out this nonsense about being too afraid to invest. Horsewash. But that's not the point of this thread. Since we're all so passionate about conservation, what are we going to do when the floor falls out of this thing? I read blogs where people churn on about how they'll just go huntin' and feeshing when everything goes to hell and they don't have to give a crap what happens outside their back 40 and their local stream. They're living in a fantasy world. There were 1/3 as many people in the country when they shot almost every deer and turkey and elk and fished and polluted most of the streams into oblivion in the middle of the 20th century. The way things are now you might get two years of game in your belly before it's back to zero...if you're lucky. A great big dose of government got us to back to where we are now. The trend is for that support to go away. I'm not shilling for the government...but show me how fish stay in the streams and those ecosystems Justin's talking about don't fall apart once you've gutted the thing holding them together. I'll even spot you one, private sector righties... About 5 years ago, I introduced a proposal for cost-effective long term leases for small streams to the board of the Illinois Smallmouth Alliance. They didn't like it because they were afraid of mounting costs to fish...and I see their point. But what I saw coming back then is just getting closer and closer and we've still got our hands folded in our laps. You like what we've got now? Get a great big eye-full Papacitos because it's on the way out. Mitch I get the feeling you're a good man and you don't let much bother you. I admire that. But a bunch of gutless righties won't even click on this link because they know they'll get their arms pulled off from bringing that "we're too afraid to invest" crap in here. Fine. They can sit over there and sulk, but however tight their panties get twisted, the same problems are out there and they'd better wake up. I'm still listening. Chirp. Chirp. Chirp.

Sorry you're sensitive about the fact that there's a racist demographic out there... http://brooksmith.blogspot.com/2008/10/something-ugly-something-blue-something.html ...but they're in plain sight. Maybe you know enough people calling Obama a Muslim that you can't afford to face the truth about that, but he belongs to my church and I've had enough of it. The point about luxury goods stands as well. Buy whatever car you like just don't sit there with 6 figures worth of hardware in your garage and wring your hands about you're too afraid to come out of your house. ...and NO ONE has yet explained how the private sector is going to pick up the slack for conservation. Crickets. Very quiet crickets.