Phil Lilley

Duane and Ryan boated up almost to Trout Hollow yesterday looking for a run-a-way dock (never saw one). They said some of the docks below TH were damaged pretty bad but holding on. They didn't go past that because they didn't want to wake the docks. We haven't seen any boats on the lake since Sunday.

I think you're thinking of the old Sun Valley dock... it left in 2011. Wrapped around the railroad bridge.

Table Rock is dropping ever so slow. .04 feet on hour. Incredible seeing the release. A lot of water still running in to Table Rock. Hope to see it dropping a little faster today seeing rain coming into the area starting tonight. Seeing all the devestation east of us, and the houses flooded out again around us, there's no way we will complain about a little water in a few units if that happens. It's these times we all should consider life and what's important - our family, friends, health.

Current situation - Beaver is backing off flow. Crested. Will hold. Table Rock I think has crested and will start to drop. Release from TR is 62,500 and will continue for a few days. That's a little lower than 2011 flood levels. Another rain system moving in tomorrow evening through Thrusday am. Average rainfall 1-5-2.5 inches over entire the basin. This system has expanded the last 12 hours. They are hopeful it won't stall!! At present forecast, they are optimistic the lakes can handle the rain. It may mean Beaver will kick back on. Also if creeks feeding Taneycomo are impacted, they may flood worse because there's no where the water can go. Also might bring up Taney - they will not back off TR release because of any downstream flooding. Our dock is showing sign of weakening. There are some older section in the middle that are bowed. Hoping it all holds through this. Will be reeplacing part of the dock later on in the season for sure. Duane has caught 4 rainbows so far but we haven't hadn't had much time to fish. We are open for business. The shop is almost back, stocked up. Phone are working and we have guests checking in today. Selective units of course! And no access to boats or the dock. The lake is affectively CLOSED. We heard there was a dock broke free up lake this morning. Ryan and Duane jumped in a jon boat and went up to see if it was on our side of the lake or the other. No sign of the dock but docks below Trout Hollow Resort are in very bad shape.

Beaver: elev 1130.42 and falling (105.2% fs); releasing 54k cfs.Estimating release reduction at 0800 to 28k cfs (25k spillway & 3k turbines). Another reduction later today if possible. Crested at 1131.25 at 4pm yesterday.Table Rock: elev 933.91 and rising, appears to be cresting (121.5% fs); releasing 64k cfs.Estimating holding this release for the day with a predicted crest near 934 later today. Approximately 0.5' of free board on gates, with forecasted winds this may mean that people see a little water splash over the gate tops, this is not a serious concern.

(Dam Notification) Table Rock Dam will increase releases to 62,500 cfs starting at 6:00 PM. At 45,000 now. According to a Corps page, TR should crest tomorrow at 933.4 feet. No idea how high they'll have to go catch up. 2015 was 78,000 cfs

Now Steve is Little Rock. Table Rock Corp was not on the call so... I hope they get their reports right. A lot of people depend on it, above and below the dam.

I'm sorry that's not what the Corps is telling people. Was on a conference call with Steve Bays from Little Rock 3 hours ago and he was very frustrated with the "rumor mill" of false information going around. This front that's going through they think will dump 2-3 inches of rain. Following that, intermitten rain till the system passes. Granted, that was at 11 am but from what I'm seeing on live radar and live precipitation maps, that's exactly what's happening. He thinks that Table Rock can handle what's fallen and what they think will fall in the next 18 hours. TR will rise but not to those levels. He would not, though, give any numbers, guesses. He said it was like guessing the lottery.

Yea they got hammered. That's not in the Beaver watershed, it is?

Weather service is saying the the front developing and moving through the area Joplin to Anderson right now could add 2-3 inches of rain to that area. They're saying this rain will be split between watersheds. Corps says with the rain on the ground, TR's release is handling what's coming in to Table Rock. The tone was optimistic that the dams can handle what's coming in unless the front stalls over the watershed and dumps 10 inches of rain on the area which they do not think will happen. It's moving slow but it is moving and trending north a bit.

I sure hope you're right. That would be awesome! But there's a big front just to the west of NW Ark that's training big time. We'll see what that brings here in the next couple of hours.

I don't think the creeks are muddy... we haven't gotten that much rain.

That was not written by anyone who has any authority like the Corps... just shows you you can't trust what's on Wikipedia. There's an elevation, just above 933-34 feet, where the electric motors are housed on the outside of the dam on the TR side. If those motors get wet/submerged, the flood gates are rendered useless and the water will go where it wills. Then the only alternative is the aux gates. His numbers might be right on that gate but Point Lookout wouldn't be impacted.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/mo/springfield/sgf/?region=lit A good map to watch

A guy on the conference call this morning, from Berry County, asked Steve Bays (USCG Little Rock) if he thought it would be ok if they held a tournament out of M or Shell Knob (?) can't remember which one. Steve said it would be a nasty day, lots of storms... he wouldn't suggest it. I guess he was serious!

If anyone can find something that shows close to realtime precipitation amounts, that would be helpful to those who are watching this storm move through. KY3 has something like that but was way off during the last rain.

Just got off a conference call with the National Weather Service and the Corps. Here's the gust of the news. Storms will form tonight between 7-8 pm on the Mo Ark border, may be close to the Branson area instead of further in NW Ark like they thought yesterday. This would be a good thing because some of the rain would fall past Table Rock's watershed into the Taneycomo/Bull Shoals area. Expecting 1-2 inches of heavy rain with the initial front. Then 3 inches is expected for Saturday into Sunday morning with totals of 3-6 inches area wide. That's the official forecast - 3-6 inches with isolated spots of up to 8-10 inches. The NWS did say that there's one weather model that is showing a shift of the heaviest rain north of our watershed - up from the Joplin to Warsaw area. But he warned that this is just one possibility that they are watching. He sounded cautiously optimistic. So there is some hope that this won't be the catastrophic event that was feared yesterday. But we won't know till the rain is on the ground. They are releasing 15,000 cfs at Table Rock and will stay at that release till Table Rock reaches 920 feet in which they will increase to 20,000 cfs. At 930 feet, the flow will increase to whatever they deem appropriate to keep the water from breaching the dam.

No. And it won't for some time. We had a TU mtg at the dam tonight. I asked Bryan of the hatchery how close it got past winter to the trout pools. He said one foot from the first brown trout pool. Hope this one doesn't flood the hatchery.

I know you Table Rock guys only watch this forum so you might not see my posting on the rain forecast. I was on a conference call with the NWS out of Springfield. "We are extremely confident" in the models they're seeing right now. I posted a forecast map last night that showed very little rain this weekend. I guess I don't watch these maps enough to know they can change at a moment's notice. This event could easily be the worse in the chain of lake's history.

They predicted the James River will reach 40 ft over flood stage...

Weather service is now calling for 8 inches of rain in the Beaver/Table Rock area. Very bad news.

Looking at the rise at Beaver right now, I think it's going to crest below 1130 feet. Looks like they're releasing water at Beaver this morning. So we might not see additional release at Table Rock Dam. I'd actually like to see more release... just to move more water out and... for selfish reasons. It'll dump more shad in the tailwater. Trout fishing is really getting GOOD right now.

Forecast has changed... This is now through May 2. Very big difference. Now we'll see how much they'll release from Beaver Dam, then Table Rock Dam.

Praise God. Forecast has changed dramatically since last night.

App is working. 1125.63 5 am