Earthquake In Japan..

[jdmidwest]

I have been watching a web site from the St. Louis University on Seismic Activity. While I never showed interest in the physical science of chemistry (biology and microbiology was my gig), geology, paleontology, and other earth sciences have always been an interest. As a kid I was a rockhound. I always wanted to be a fossil hunter, in second grade I traded for a trilobite fossil which I still have around here somewhere, but it is one of the things I never have time for. Karst geology has been an interest, I hate small places but I love cool spring water.

Anyhow, I watch the seismographs from time to time. At SEMO University, I walked by the seismograph daily in college. I met Dr. David Stewart and talked about the New Madrid Fault. He lost some credibility when he supported a prediction that a major earthquake would happen in 1990 and people got skeered, but he had a point. Now we realize it is coming, someday. Unfortunately, we still can't predict when to be called an exact "science".

In light of the quake in Japan, a civilized country, 10k presumed dead, nuclear reactors failing, mass destruction, thousands without power or water, it is only a matter of time till we get ours. In looking at this map over the past several days, Japan is still getting pounded with aftershocks. Other quakes have spawned all over the plate division, even one or two on the New Madrid Fault.

My only point is to be prepared, it is going to happen here someday. Japan will probably teach us a few things about surviving this disaster.

Earthquakes Tabular at USGS

[Al Agnew]

There is now one cadre of scientists who are saying the threat from the New Madrid fault system is vastly overblown. They are saying that the tiny quakes that happen all the time along the fault are slowing down, and the fault is actually quieting down and may never erupt again.

One of these scientists was on the St. Louis NPR station a few weeks back, which was the first time I heard this theory. He also said that the effects of the 1811-1812 quakes were greatly less than what has always been reported--the Mississippi did not flow backwards, church bells did not ring in Boston, etc.

As somebody who has always been interested in this stuff and has read a lot on it, I immediately questioned his conclusions to myself. Seems to me that a slowing of mini-quakes doesn't necessarily mean the fault is quieting; instead it can very well mean the fault is getting locked and pressure is building up for a bigger quake. And the effects of the earlier quakes weren't just made up out of thin air, they were reliably reported at the time.

Apparently I wasn't the only one to think this, because a bunch of geologists and professors contacted KWMU the next few days stating that these views are definitely in the minority and that most scientists still believe the fault to be very dangerous.

I used to wish that the fault would let go sometime in my lifetime, just because I wanted to see just what kind of damage it could do. I figured that, living where I am, I wouldn't suffer many of the effects of the quake because the worst damage is always in "unconsolidated" ground--deep soils along the river bottoms and not solid bedrock like the Ozarks. But when you look at the damage pattern predicted and the power apparently inherent in quakes along the fault, you soon realize that a quake on the magnitude of the earlier ones would probably wreck the economy of the region for many years to come, and have serious economic consequences for the country (not to mention, of course, the suffering and loss of life). It's quite possible that most of not all the major bridges across the Mississippi between St. Louis and Memphis could be damaged or destroyed. Kentucky Lake Dam could be damaged or destroyed. Damage to infrastructure and property would be extensive and incredibly costly, since few buildings and highway overpasses have been designed with earthquakes in mind in this part of the country.

So I've gotten wiser as I got older, and now I really hope those few scientists who are minimizing the danger of the New Madrid fault system are right. We DON'T want to live through another New Madrid quake.

[Stoneroller]

we probably won't 'live' through another quake if it's as big as what hit japan.

[flytyer57]

Oh no!!

The sky is falling!!

[jdmidwest]

Around here we would have to worry about the Natural Gas pipelines rupturing and shooting gas till they shut down. Bridges over rivers collapsing and preventing travel and supply. Electricity failing. It would be a mess, not something that I would want to go thru.

Urban living would be better off than city as most buildings are not designed for an earthquake until the last 10 years. Lucky for us, most police stations, fire stations, hospitals, and National Guard Armories have been "hardened" in the past few years to withstand a good shake.

One thing pointed out today was the civility of the Japanese people. No reports of major looting, riots, attacks on rescue and aid workers, etc. like we saw with Katrina and Haiti.

[Wayne SW/MO]

I hadn't heard the program that Al heard, but I think the consensus is still that a major quake is possible on the fault. One of the dangers that has been constantly been put forward is the fact that the fault is under very soft ground and that will make the damage in some areas above the norm. The theory I've seen most often is that St Louis could be hard hit and even Kansas city damaged, but because of the limestone base, the Ozarks would receive less.

Those of us around here, or most of us, know that engineering and other scientific endeavors are evolving. The addition of the gates on Table Rock come to mind.

[Stoneroller]

One thing pointed out today was the civility of the Japanese people. No reports of major looting, riots, attacks on rescue and aid workers, etc. like we saw with Katrina and Haiti.

wonder why...

[flytyer57]

wonder why...

Cuz it's too dark in N.O. or Haiti to see.

[Stoneroller]