It's March.....

[BATCAB27]

gna be an awesome tournament. Lots of good teams, and great coaches. Funny how the best coaches in the world would rather coach college than pros. I'll be interested to see how well McDermott and Creighton do.

[ozark trout fisher]

I'll be interested to see how well McDermott and Creighton do.

That will be interesting. They actually have a defense this year unlike the last couple. Definitely a final 4 threat.

[ozark trout fisher]

One thing that's really important to MO and Arkansas (and every other bubble team). With Arch Madness starting we desperately need Wichita State to win. Obviously the Shockers are in for sure and no other team from the MVC can get in as an at-large, realistically. So if a team like Indiana State or Northern Iowa wins the auto-bid, that's one less tournament spot available, which could make all the difference.

In the WCC, also, we need to cheer for Gonzaga and BYU, who are likely tournament teams regardless, and against St. Mary's, who is good enough to win the tournament but wouldn't make it as an at-large. In the Mountain West, cheer for New Mexico and San Diego State. Southern Miss is the only potential at-large team in C-USA (though a long-shot) so we want them to win it just in case. Basically, we want as few at-large bids as possibly going to conferences that would otherwise be 1 bid leagues, and preferably none.

What we can't afford is to have an at-large team like Middle Tennessee last year.

[Quillback]

Good point OTF.

[ozark trout fisher]

Well, so much for that. I believe both MU and Arkansas may have punched their NIT tickets today. Mizzou is the 8 seed in Atlanta, playing A&M. Then Florida with a win. Fun, fun, fun.

[BATCAB27]

15. yep 15 made baskets in 40 min by the tigers today. gotta be close to, if not a record.

[Quillback]

I did not see the AR game, only the score. If they don't make the NCAA, I have zero sympathy.

[ozark trout fisher]

Arkansas still has a shot. But they need to do damage in Atlanta.

Missouri has one chance: beat A&M, then stun Florida in the quarterfinals. Then, they probably make the tournament. I'm more likely to catch a streamborn rainbow the next time I visit Maramec Springs.

[ozark trout fisher]

Well the SEC tourney tips off for MO tomorrow at noon. The first round already started today.

We'll be a slight favorite against A&M, but that home matchup a week ago was not encouraging. We'll have to play better to expect to beat them at a neutral site. We have to bet them and then (the fun part) beat Florida in the quarters to have a shot at making the dance. Not likely at all, but amazing that it's still remotely possible without the auto-bid. But after that we still might have to beat Arkansas/Tennessee in the semis to really lock things up beyond a doubt. We are talking about something like a 5% likelihood of getting that far. So yeah, it should be no problem at all.

Arkansas has a must win against South Carolina to start up. Then they probably need to beat Tennessee to feel like they've locked up a bid, but it's not a "must".

With a loss there in the quarters to UT, Arkansas would still be right on the bubble. But realistically, they probably would be out. That is most likely a "play in" game for both teams (with the likely reward a real play in tourney game in Dayton for the winner.) It's not the general opinion, but I think the committee puts UW-Green Bay in and takes a bid away from a major conference team. They've set a precedent with Iona in 2012 and MTSU in 2013 that is hard to ignore. That could change the dynamic, ever so slightly for the teams competing for the last couple spots.

[Quillback]

I'm with you on Arkansas needing to beat Tenn. Lunardi right now has Arkansas and Tennessee in the last 4 "probables" as making the tourney. So assuming he is reading the tea leaves correctly, I'd say the winner of the AR/Vols game is in, loser is probably out. This is assuming AR beats SC of course. They should, but coming off that ridiculous loss to Bama, my confidence is shaken.