Corp Email - Rains and Area Lake Level Forecast

[Phil Lilley]

Just want to provide you with an update and let you know that the Corps is monitoring the weather forecast closely for the weekend and possible impacts to the White River System.

The National Weather Service is forecasting a significant rainfall event for the Little Rock District basins; the forecast indicates rainfall amounts of 5-7 inches across the upper Arkansas and White Rivers basins and 7-8 inches across the Little River and Clearwater basins.  Little Rock District Lakes/Reservoirs have 95% to 99% of flood storage available to capture runoff, except Clearwater Lake which is at 85%.  This should be sufficient storage for this event.  We will monitor the rain and lake levels closely as rainfall develops, depending on how the rainfall develops, we expect all lakes to see significant rises, and expect rivers downstream from dams to experience several rises as the rainfall occurs.

5-day QPF: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1448479231

WHITE RIVER SYSTEM.  Beaver, and Table Rock remain in their conservation pools,  Bull Shoals, Norfork, and Greers Ferry are slightly into their flood pools.

Beaver: elev 1120.06 (98.9% conservation storage)
Table Rock: elev 916.82 (99.4% conservation storage)
Bull Shoals: elev 660.77 (1.8% flood storage)
Norfork: elev 557.86 (13.7% flood storage)
Greers Ferry: elev 462.38 (1.2% flood storage)

Forecasted Pool crests with predicted rainfall amounts:

BV - 1125
TR - 920
BS - 668
NF - 565
GF - 469

Please keep in mind that these are predictions and there are a lot of variables.  This is just an FYI in case you have questions on what the lake levels might do if we get the rain they are predicting.

Current stage at Newport is 16.39' and falling  (12' regulating stage).  Will transition to 21' regulating stage December 1st.
Current stage at Georgetown is at 16.72'  and rising slightly (13' regulating stage). Will transition to 21' regulating stage December 1st.