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Phil Lilley

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Everything posted by Phil Lilley

  1. If someone could find the current elevation- the Corps app isn't working. The call in number is stuck on 1124.3
  2. That's what I've seen. Now we'll see where Beaver will crest and when from today's rain.
  3. It really depends on which weather service you look at. Some say hardly any on Friday and 4 inches Saturday. But there's more rain south of there. If the center moves just a little more south, it may move out of our watershed. All hopeful thinking. Beaver is at 1124.1 feet and rising fast. From 5 pm till now it rose 6 inches. Historicly, the Corps lets it get all the way to 1130 before releasing water and that's probably what they'll do tomorrow or Friday. Then TR will have to release.
  4. The map has changed. Looks like our watershed will get 3 inches. I like the direction it's going... decreasing plus moving south.
  5. No. Thought there might be some whites in the corner by the cable but none yet. Never know... They're not releasing much over the gates. Looks like a lot but not compared to past releases. I would mind a touch more
  6. Just got off the water. Boated to the dam with a friend. Made 3.5 drifts from the cable to the MDC boat ramp. I say .5 because we did one short drift from the cable to outlet 3. Not sure how many we caught- took pics of the bigger ones. All these rainbows were 15 to 18 inches long except for the last - he was 12 inches but real pretty. All on white 1/8th oz jigs. Got to get them on the bottom and just drift them. White jigs and flies should just get better and better in the coming days with the gates open.
  7. I've been asked to join a conference call tomorrow at 11 am with the Corps. It's probably a list of ppl in the media and city/county gov'ts affected by the rain/high water and releases below dams. Guess I'll know more after the call.
  8. Found this. Better than the other map!!
  9. Just posted this on our Facebook Page: We don't like to post negative news, especially news we have no control over, and we can't predict. But maybe by now you've seen in the news that we're getting a lot of rain in our area and that lake levels are rising so this won't come as a shock. Presently, the Corps is releasing 13.400 cfs of water through Table Rock Dam which equals 4 turbines, although they are running about 4,200 cfs over the spill gates because one turbine isn't working. Table Rock's level crested at 918.4 feet a few days ago and is dropping, slowly. It's at 917.94 feet right now. Normal pool is 915 feet. Anytime the level gets past 920 feet, they release more water over the spill gates. It's when Table Rock's levels get in the upper 20's we see our lake level go over our dock ramps and up into the road. If there's a possibility it goes to 930 feet, we will get water in our lower units again, 19-20 and 21. Right now, that DOESN'T look like this will happen. The forecast says our water shed is to get 6.5 inches of rain between now and May 1. This includes today's rain and more rain on Saturday. But the rain model has been moving south and east of us... it changes almost hourly. But south and east is good for us. So looking ahead, we are going to see high water, not flooding, on our lake for the next week, may be longer. But on the positive side, opening the spill gates at TR Dam brings in threadfin shad which our trout absolutely love! The trout will be hitting anything white below the dam as well as down lake below Fall Creek, they'll be eating minnows too. The long range fishing forecast is exciting!
  10. Here was the other map from yesterday.
  11. Starting a new topic on the current weather (rain) and lake levels on the White River Chain. I posted an image map yesterday showing up to 10 inches of rain in NW Arkansas and SW Missouri. Sent chills down my spine. But today's map looks better, at least for our water shed. Even the big rain today is east and south of the watershed. We're getting rain but nothing like they thought. As far as Taneycomo and Table Rock release, I think we'll see an increase of release later today or tomorrow as Table Rock rises closer to 920 feet - and that's a good thing for us. It might blow out weekend business but I'd take that any day over have to evacuate... again. I'd like for posters to post what they're getting as far as precipitation in their areas. KY3 has a map showing rainfall but not sure how up to date it is.
  12. I hope you're right and it's just 1126!!
  13. The bulk of the rain is tracking south and east of our watershed right now. NW Ark is getting rain but it's not as bad as it could be. I'm hoping with the rain events being 3 days apart, the Corp will start moving water through the system as the lakes rise and avert another 2016 flood. All it takes is the main line of rain to move 10-20 miles to the east to miss the White River watershed, although someone else (south and east of us) is going to get it.
  14. Thanks guys for giving to Christian Action Ministries, a local food pantry here in Branson/Forsyth. We will buy $1800 worth of food (can goods, non parishables) with your donation.
  15. Wish they could too. I go back to the story I've told several times. It has some bearing on what you're saying. 2011. We'd been hit by the most flow out of TR dam since it was built. They'd gotten ahead of it and the lake was dropping. Less than a week later, they forecasted another 5 inches of rain over the entire White River watershed. We'd already been flooded - 3 units and a badly damaged dock. Wouldn't have hurt us if they brought it back up and ran it in anticiaption of the new waves of water coming. It never rained. At all. I remember the weather map and all the red over our area. Now if they made more room for this kind of weather event... lowered the pool in Beaver, Table Rock. That would help. I think. Wasn't the level of TR something like 907 ft just before one of the big floods? 2007? Heck, I'm getting the flood years all mixed up now... they just keep coming. And each is bigger than the last.
  16. Couple of things... I don't know who KY3 talked to (I doubt anyone at the Corps) but there's 3 units running and to make up for the 4th unit they are running 5 flood gates equaling 4 units - 13,400 cfs. They are not running water in anticipation of rain coming. OK... you say you want the Corps to release lots of water because of the coming rain. How much? My ramps are within 18 inches of going under. Close my dock? Other docks? There's houses that flood in Branson if they run too much more water. Flood those houses in anticipation of rain coming? And if it doesn't rain, Corps gets racked over the coals, this time by the higher ups because they flooded someone's home for nothing. My dock? I'm willing to make the sacrifice. But wash my dock away? It's a no win situation but I understand and agree with the present policy. And right now I'm saying that even though my heart is in my stomach, seeing the forecast.
  17. They aren't too warm. It will in time. They weren't there this morning. Water is 57 coming over the top.
  18. Did hear they MAY run this water till Table Rock is down to 915. That may take a while, seeing there's more rain in the forecast.
  19. They're not running much... more flow would bring more fish in over the top. My guess is that there's a bunch of fish at the base of the dam picking off most of the shad coming it, for now. But when they get full, more will trickle down below the cable. And more... and more. This am we didn't see any shad but Duane's crew picked up a few nice rainbows on shad flies - 2 -- 19 inchers. But we did the best of pink or cerise san juans - the larger worms. Also #12 gray scuds. We both had 6 in our pontoons, 5 kids and one adult, from a boy's home in Wichita. DD's boat boated 23 and mine 14, 2 hours of fishing. Not bad considering wind, tangles and retying.
  20. They opened 5 gates at 10 am. At the same time, they shut down one turbine. So it's running the same as 4 units - 13,000 cfs I boated up and was surprised to see them open. Threw a white jig and caught 6 rainbows. They're not hot on them... yet. But they will be!!
  21. I assume he's using the jig hooks he ties his miracle fly on. It's a #14 hook with I'd say a 1/150th oz head. It's less than 1/100th oz. He sells them on his site. http://www.flysandguides.com/
  22. Sorry I missed it too. I helped with the FCA, kid's event at Top of the Rock this afternoon. Dude Perfect was there and the kids loved them. Paul Clark sang and Fred Funk shared. Misty and cold but no one minded. Funk and Sluman are going for another win - up by 4 shots.
  23. I don't know, Russ. And Jeremy doesn't frequent the forum. I know he's fishing at Norfork today.
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