I don't know OTF, maybe the SC game was a hint? When Shaw came in I'm sure the plays got more complicated and MO should have been ready just in case, but they weren't.
F&F I kind of agree with your assessment, except maybe the NC and the Sugar.
FSU has a top defense and better than Bama's and a coordinator better than MO. I look for FSU to get ahead a slowly pull away.
The Sugar, not this season. For what ever reason Stoops is much better in the regular season than in the bowls. He also doesn't have a strong team this year, the starting defense in the middle is gone, and while the replacements have real improved, they aren't the team captains that were lost. The DB's are very talented and athletic, top notch, but young and prone to mistakes. The receivers are also very talented, but hampered by height and easy to cover at times. In the end, while I would love for them to put it on 'Bama, I don't have much hope without and extra large dose of Sooner Magic!