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Everything posted by ozark trout fisher
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I think on the road we could lose by double digits, easy. I could also see us winning by 20+ at home. Hopefully we will actually be able to handle the ball. If Keion Bell can be a servicable secondary ball-handler like he was against Ole Miss, we can probably beat Arkansas at home on the road, no matter how well they play. Because they almost certainly can't beat us without a lot of turnovers-unless they're hitting a ridiculous number of threes. But my level of confidence in that actually happening isn't great. I'll say Arkansas wins by 12-15 in Fayetteville, honestly. If I'm right that puts a lot of pressure on this team to win pretty much every game except Kentucky and Florida the rest of the way. Probably pretty doable considering the schedule but Mizzou would be well served to quit playing with fire and just go get the win. Easier said than done. Arkansas is clearly a talented and dangerous team, the sort that if they can get in as an 11 or 12 seed no 5 or 6 seed would want to face. Arkansas' gonna know that they really need to beat Missouri to have a chance to get there. Desperate team that plays very well at home against a team that struggles on the road? Not the greatest combination ever.
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Obviously as someone who cheers for Mizzou, I'm not a huge Mike Anderson fan, so if he ends up losing his job because of a couple of subpar seasons it wouldn't be all that heartbreaking for me. But realistically, I would encourage patience. It took him two straight years of not being anywhere close to the NCAA tournament before he was able to get things going. At least this Arkansas team is making at least something of a push towards postseason play. Mike Anderson will probably never build your program into one that is consistently one of the top 2 in the SEC. His brand of basketball lends itself to an incredible amount of inconsistency-always the case when you rely on a bunch of turnovers to win...against teams that can handle the ball you'll almost never win. And while I know he's had his moments at Mizzou and UAB, generally it's a terrible system for making a run in the tournament, where the games tend to be slowed down a lot and half court offense (and defense) is a necessary skill. But his system gets into the heads of more teams than not, especially at home. I would expect him to get Arkansas to the tournament more often than not, if that's the goal.
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SEC road wins are tough to come by. Missouri fans know this. I'm really looking forward to seeing how Mizzou does at Bud Walton next Saturday. That will be a pretty good measuring stick for both teams...Arkansas will come out fighting because they know they probably need all the quality wins they can get to have a chance to make the tournament at this point. Missouri should see it as an important game to make a statement on the road, and to avoid falling too far down in seeding, or even to avoid getting too close to the bubble. Should be a very tough game. Now in Mizzou arena on the other hand, could be a lot more manageable. Except in the one dream season where we made the Elite Eight, Mike Anderson could almost never win on the road at Missouri. Always dang near unbeatable at home though, even when our teams were not that good. I think his 40 minutes of heck system relies a little too much on the energy of the home crowd, and the home refs. I'm not exactly shocked to see the same thing play out at Arkansas.
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Missouri bounced back nicely today against Ole Miss. The striking thing is that we lost to them by 15 on the road. Won by 19 at home. I'm not good at math but I think that's a 34 point difference. And that sums up our season so far, pretty much. Anyway, it's a win over a likely tournament team, and I'll take it however it comes. This puts Missouri in a much better position than it was in a few hours ago. But the highs and lows of this team are starting to wear on me. They need to win at Mississippi State this week.
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Well, Missouri clearly does have plenty of trouble on the road. With about ten games left (counting the last 9 regular season games and at least 1 SEC tournament game), I think it's time to look at where Missouri stands....Texas A&M isn't a bad team, so this loss by itself isn't too concerning. But the 0-5 mark in true road games is. Missouri isn't on the bubble yet, with computer numbers still safely inside the 30s, and some quality wins that outweigh the two iffy losses. But I don't think it's an overstatement to say that tomorrow's game against Ole Miss is big. Definitely not a must win to get into the tournament, just very important...But it would put us in much more safe territory if we could pick up another quality win. However we get there, Missouri probably needs to get to 11-7 in conference play (22-9 overall) to feel good about things, as long as they can win at least one more in the SEC tournament and avoid any truly awful losses. At 5-4, we have road games against Mississippi State and South Carolina, as well as home games against LSU and Arkansas. Missouri even at it's current mediocre level of play probably won't lose any of those, though anything is certainly possible now. It's hard to see us beating Florida at home or Kentucky on the road right now. But if we do win either of those games (particularly against Florida), we are probably in barring a sub-500 SEC record. So basically, the season at least in theory comes down to road games at Arkansas and Tennessee, as well as Saturday's home game against Ole Miss. Assuming we win all the rest of our games except Florida and Kentucky (which I wish I felt more confident about), if we can win 2 of the 3 above games, Missouri should be relatively safe. Missouri could easily end up losing more than that, and at 9-9 or 10-8 we'd probably need to win multiple games in the SEC tournament just to slide into the NCAAs. They could just as easily take care of business, go 12-6, and end up with a 6 or a 7 seed, possibly better. I don't know what to expect at this point. The only thing I'm sure about is that I'm tired of the mid-to late season concerns about whether Missouri's basketball and football teams are going to make the postseason. Our football team kept me nervous for so long that I was hoping basketball would be a bit more relaxing in that regard. Three months into the season, it's not. This has been a rough year, but I suppose we were probably due for that after years of success in both football and basketball. As for Kansas, naturally I don't see them winning another game.... (wish I could say that with a straight face...they will probably win the national title now that Bill Self is pissed off at the them.)
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I'm tired of being qualified in my support of the school and the team that I love. If that means becoming an SEC fan, and getting into the new rivalries with Arkansas and others, then that's what I'm willing to do. And the Arkansas rivalry should be a very good one. There is already plenty of animosity there for it to get going right away. And if Kansas isn't willing to work with us for a non-conference game, then it's a huge shame, but there's nothing to be done about it. We may have screwed up, but the reality is the ball is in KU's court when it comes to restarting this rivalry. Mizzou has repeatedly stated it's willingness to get it going whenever Kansas is ready. We will be fine either way. Oh, and TCU just happened. Maybe that explains the reluctance to play a top 25 team...
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I do think both teams are roughly equal in quality. The problem is that SLU's computer ratings are pretty close to the "straight to the NIT" range, while Missouri's RPI would for the moment keep it pretty safe. The LSU loss is bad subjectively, but according to the RPI LSU is just outside the top 100, and it the loss barely even touched our own RPI. But Rhode Island is closer to 200, and it's killing St. Louis' resume right now. But obviously it doesn't matter too much where your are right now. We all know that LSU probably isn't all that much better than Rhode Island, and neither loss is really any more excusable, but that's how the RPI works. Each team has plenty of time to move, either up or down. I do think both make the tournament before it is said and done, though neither with much margin for error. We'll see.
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What you say is basically true...with one key stipulation that does matter somewhat...Lately Mizzou's homecourt, regardless of what you can say about the atmosphere, has been among the toughest places for teams to play in the country over the past four years. Even on par with Cameron Indoor or Allen Fieldhouse, though just in the recent years after Mike Anderson got the program going again. I believe we are something like 77-4 at home in this timespan and haven't lost there this season yet. Kansas is the better team without question, but has still lost at home to a middle of the road Big 12 team, and came within one desperate buzzer beater of losing to another (Iowa State.) Allen Fieldhouse isn't as impossible to win at as we're used to.
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You don't have to tell me that. Maybe the two will start playing again out of conference. I'm not hopeful.
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I'm finally coming to accept the change, though it hasn't been easy (especially since some struggles in both basketball and football haven't helped me forget.) I was at the Mizzou-Auburn game over the weekend, and you can tell the atmosphere is a notch or two below what it was in the last few years, even for run of the mill Big 12 opponents. People just don't know anything about Auburn, don't have all the great past games against that team to remember, because there haven't been any. But so long as we stay in the SEC long term (and at this point, we better) those rivalries will slowly develop, and maybe the MU Auburn game will actually mean something ten years from now. Anyway, I still enjoy the games, and while it matters to me what conference we're in, at the end of the day it's not as important as the team I'm cheering for. Even though we don't actually have a great history of playing each other, with the Mike Anderson saga, the Arkansas rivalry should be fun and heated right from the get-go, and is definitely one good thing we can still have each season. I'm looking forward to that game a whole lot.
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They need to quit taking bad losses. They've shown their potential in some very impressive wins-Butler especially, but they're way to inconsistent. Right now they're an NCAA tournament bubble team, and would probably be in the NIT if the season ended now. The home loss to Rhode Island is incredibly damaging. But all that said, I think they'd be very dangerous if they can string together enough wins to make the big dance. I like their chances of eventually doing that, and the A-10 gives them plenty of opportunities for more big wins that could get them in. They've shown they're capable of taking down elite teams on any given night.
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I know that Missouri won't play them because they think SLU (and Missouri State, for that matter) are "little brother" programs. As a die-hard Mizzou fan, that's just silly. Those are legit programs that usually put quality teams on the floor. The Missouri Valley and A-10 schools are basically major conferences in basketball. Honestly they are close if not equal to the SEC in quality of play. Fans want to see quality games against teams they know/care about. I don't know what the drawback is. It's not like if we did lose to a quality team like SLU it would be damaging. I mean, we play Southeast Missouri State almost annually (and came a bit close to actually losing to them this year) as well as occasional games against UMKC. So we're not averse to playing all of the instate programs, just SLU and MSU seemingly.
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Well, yes. Great win for SLU. The Atlantic Ten is a beast of a conference. SLU had not lived up to expectations for a lot of the year (for completely understandable reasons, given Rick Majerus' passing) but beating a good Butler team is a good start for them...puts them a lot closer to the NCAA tournament discussion. Not 100% ready to say that they're the best team in the state just yet, but they're certainly in that conversation. Of course it should really just be settled on the court anyway...still don't know why we don't play SLU. They'd be a heck of a lot better for our RPI than a lot of the teams we played this year out of conference.
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Well, Jabari Brown gets eligible tomorrow...he may even start according to Haith. Don't know if he'll have a major impact right off the bat (he's basically a freshman, having only played 2 college games) but he should be a significant piece of the puzzle in time. I think it's too much to ask to expect him to fix all of our outside shooting difficulties, but it should be a help.
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I am looking forward to the Illinois game. It will be a good test. Illinois isn't as good as they looked against Gonzaga (after all, they came uncomfortably close to losing to dreaded Norfolk State last night, along with close games against Hawaii and Gardner-Webb...) but they are a legitimate top 25 team, and would definitely register as a quality win. Missouri needs those, too, if we're to get into the tournament as something like a 5 seed. VCU and Stanford will most likely be nice wins and should be very helpful should we find ourselves on the tournament bubble, but those aren't the wins that a top 15 team should come away with in the non-conference. And true quality wins will be tough to come by after Illinois, with UCLA down and Kentucky not quite it's usual top 10 self, at least yet. Our home and home with Florida might be our only games with a team of Illinois' caliber the whole rest of the season. So it's important for sure.
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I certainly felt the same way about Haith when he was hired...We go from potential home runs like Matt Painter and Shaka Smart to some guy that basically no one in this state had heard of. But goodness has he proved us wrong. It was so easy to look at his record at Miami and find fault with it, as pretty much all of us did. But in many ways, he may have actually been the most successful coach in the history of that program...Going to the NIT every and an occasional NCAA tournament isn't easy there. So yeah, I missed that. Glad it seems I was wrong about him. He has got his work cut out for him this year though-plenty of talent, but it's gonna take awhile to mesh it. But so far, I've been impressed with how he has handled it. Getting freshman (especially Webster-Chan, but also Jankovic and others) to contribute significantly right away has been key. I feel like he's still trying to figure out exactly what he wants from Bell and Ross, but that will come. I've also been impressed by the steady progress in Oriakhi's offensive game. For whatever reason the coaching staff at UConn didn't seem particularly interested in developing that, but obviously Haith has other plans.
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It'll be interesting come tourney time (assuming Mizzou is in it, not a certainty.) Could be wrong, but I see this team most likely being a 7 seed or lower. We should get plenty of wins in the SEC, but the conference as a whole looks down this year and even a 11-7 or 12-6 record in conference might not look all that impressive. Kentucky looks to be down (although I think they'll improve), and other usual SEC powers like Mississippi State and Vanderbilt look to be in total rebuilding mode. Florida looks great....but other than that, there aren't a whole lot of teams that look capable of contending for the NCAA tournament...The only teams I think that look safe at all are Florida, Kentucky, Alabama, and Missouri, though I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of the four didn't make it. Tennessee, Ole Miss, or Arkansas could get there, but don't look particularly likely to right now. So to get a good seed (like a 4 or a 5) Missouri would probably have dominate with at least 13-15 conference wins, which won't be easy. That said, I see there being a lot of improvement as the season goes on, and provided they get there, even as a lower seed Missouri could still be a real threat to win a couple games in the tournament.
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This is just turning into a bit of a weird year for Missouri basketball. Not a bad year, hopefully...I think this is a good team, but just odd. How do you beat a couple of pretty good, likely NCAA tournament teams (VCU and Stanford), and then pretty consistently go into half-time either trailing, or tied with opponents that are almost certainly not going to be top 100 teams? What is it about waiting until the second half to get going? It almost makes me wonder if they just like to see the fans sweat it out a little bit... Anyway, Laurence Bowers has been wonderful. He's the only thing keeping our offense afloat at times. Oriakhi has been good all year defensively and as a rebounder, but is starting to really become an offensive threat. We're getting production from the bench in Stefan Jankovic (especially today) and Tony Criswell. Honestly, I think our biggest question right now might be at point guard. Phil Pressey is a great player. He might be the player of the year candidate I expected at the end of the season. But he's clearly still adjusting to the new personel. And that's okay, as long as he continues to make progress, which I think he will. Webster Chan really could develop into a solid point guard as well. He did pretty well today when Pressey was on the bench. I think he will continue to improve, and his ceiling should be pretty high. Illinois looks tougher than expected. That should be an interesting game.
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I don't know. The fishing is tough this year on the Current for sure (especially after the terrible conditions over the summer), but honestly it had been very good the past couple of years in my opinion. I don't think it's time to worry too much yet because the fishing has let up. I think it might be mostly due to weather (lack of rain, low water.) But who knows for sure. It's still plenty of fun to fish, though I'll admit I haven't been on it near as much as usual to get a great feel for things. Just more of a challenge. By all accounts, there seems to still be some good ones too...not that I've had much luck actually catching them, but we'll not blame that on the river.
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I honestly have a hard time even disagreeing with you at this point. Conference realignment has gone so far now that there doesn't appear to be much left that future changes could even ruin. I think almost every league, from the Big 12, SEC, and Big East, all the way down to the Colonial and Sunbelt has been seriously altered over the past 2-3 years. Some, like the Big East and Conference USA, are basically unrecognizable. So I guess I don't really care what happens at this point. It seems like rivals who are still in the same conference (Ohio State-Michigan, Texas-Oklahoma, Alabama-Auburn, Virginia-Virginia Tech) are becoming the exception, not the rule. So whatever happens happens. Might as well just chase the money now, because it's too late for anything else.
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That idea sounds great in theory. Certainly it would be ideal for the postseason in football... but the problem is that it would largely eliminate the spirited conference rivalries. Of course those are quickly going by the wayside anyways. With how crazy things have gotten with realignment, we are certainly getting close to the point where the conferences are so geographically illogical that they're not worth protecting anyway. Those "spirited conference rivalries" are now (or will be soon) between Houston and UConn, Tulane and Villanova, Maryland and Nebraska. So yeah, maybe it's time for me to get behind the idea that all heck has broken lose, and when it comes to conferences, there is very little worth saving anymore. So maybe you are on to something with the superconference idea.
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I agree that Georgia should play in a BCS bowl. But for me, it's not really Northern Illinois that should be left out...They at least won enough games to be deserving, even though there aren't necessarily any great wins. Wisconsin is the inclusion that has me shaking my head. I actually like Wisconsin and it's not their fault, but a five loss team in the Rose Bowl? Really, with Oklahoma, Georgia, and Texas AM all still on the board? These conference champion tie-ins need to go away, as does the rule mandating that there can't be more than two teams from one conference. The best teams ought to be selected. I realize the system is changing somewhat in a couple years, but not really. It will still be a system where a 5 or 6 loss conference champion can be a major bowl...Again, nothing against Wisconsin, but this year they don't have the resume of a BCS team. The funny thing is, a non-bcs bowl might be the best matchup this year outside of Bama-Notre Dame and Oregon K-State. The Cotton bowl has Oklahoma and Texas AM. I'm left wondering why that's not a BCS game and Stanford-Wisconsin or Florida-Louisville is.
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ND has a great chance, in my opinion. There are few defenses that can stop Alabama's running backs (Georgia sure couldn't, and that's why they lost), but Notre Dame's run defense is arguably the best in the country. Alabama is probably gonna have to rely largely on AJ McCarron to beat Notre Dame through the air...but once again, the Irish's secondary is very good. Alabama is the better team, in my opinion, but this does not look like a good match up for them. I have Notre Dame pulling the upset. Oh, and congrats to Northern Illinois for somehow wrapping up a BCS bid in the biggest surprise of the day. Truly shocking but at 12-1 they deserved it. I feel legitimately bad for Oklahoma, who also deserved that given their resume...But this is a one in a thousand chance for Northern Illinois. It will be interesting to see if they can give Florida State any trouble...They have a great quarterback.
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I don't know. Notre Dame plays great defense, I'd say easily on par with Bama or Georgia or LSU. There offense is greatly improved. If they were in the SEC would they be undefeated? Maybe, maybe not. But they would be right near the top of the league. Notre Dame played a very difficult schedule. I realize that Michigan and USC not being quite what was expected hurt their strength of schedule, but unlike just about every conference-bound team, they played no cupcakes. Sure, games against Boston College or Wake Forest shouldn't be all that demanding for a top team, but it's still a whole lot tougher than playing an FCS school, like pretty much every school in the SEC or Big 12 does. And Oklahoma is one of the 8-12 best teams in the country and Notre Dame won that game pretty easily. Really, Notre Dame is an SEC team, or at least they follow the same blueprint as the top schools in that league. They have the offensive and defensive line to match up with anyone. Their run defense is frightening, and that will slow down a lot of SEC offenses who often rely on the run as their bread and butter. I think they would be the most ready for that conference out of the top teams this year. Everyone wanted to see Oregon-Alabama, but I suspect that the Ducks would get pushed around. Notre Dame-Alabama would probably be a great game if it happens. I agree with you about OSU. You have to be a great team to go 12-0. That said, Ohio State won a lot of close games against teams that it probably should have dominated. In other words, they're a bit lucky to be 12-0. I'm not sure they'd really be in the title mix even if they were eligible.
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Bad seasons happen at just about every program, for just about every coach. This was definitely one of those. But if you are deciding whether to retain a coach, you have to look at the overall resume...Gary Pinkel (and his staff, which has stayed very constant throughout his time here) built this program from the ground up and has been about as consistently successful as anyone in the business. This was a painful and frustrating aberration, but until we see more evidence, that's about all I'm willing to call it. He deserves another shot, and despite all the rumors that say otherwise I'm very confident he will get it.
