More Flood Gates?

[Phil Lilley]

We've been informed that rains west and south of here will probably prompt the Corp to open the flood gates at Table Rock Dam tonight.

The Hollister Fire Department told people on Arcacia Club Rd and Foggy River Rd to prepare to evacuate at a moments notice. I've heard alot are already moving.

The time and amount of water is unknown. It depends on how high Beaver and Table Rock's level rise with these rains.

It may be just a big scare... or it may not be.

Bottom line - we're in for this kind of speculation EVERY TIME it rains until they can get the water moved thru these lakes. When may that be? I hate to guess.

[Sam]

I just watched the KY3 weather report. There's some chance of rain predicted for the next six days straight, with big storms Wed. night and Thurs. dumping another 2 to 4 inches of rain all along the White River. That's not good.

[rainbow]

It was not long ago that a lot of posts talked about praying for rain to fill up the lakes...........I guess he heard us.

[denjac]

Doesnt look good. The rain is going to be widespread. Heres an alert that was posted this morning.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG... BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES... NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH... CAMDENTON...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR... BUFFALO...LEBANON...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD... SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...NEOSHO...AURORA... MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT... CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH 338 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS... BOURBON...CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD. IN MISSOURI...BARRY... BARTON...BENTON...CAMDEN...CEDAR...CHRISTIAN...DADE...DALLAS... GREENE...HICKORY...JASPER...LACLEDE...LAWRENCE...MCDONALD... MORGAN...NEWTON...POLK...ST. CLAIR...STONE...TANEY...VERNON AND WEBSTER. * FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND TWO INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO FOUR INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. * FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE SOILS REMAIN SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAIN RECEIVED ON TUESDAY. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

[Phil Lilley]

No flood gates yet. I doubt if the Corp will run more now until the rain tonight and then there's no way to guess how much.

This is going to an ongoing problem until they can get some of this water out of here. This is twice the Corp/Emergency Agencies have advised evacuations and nothing happened. Better safe than sorry BUT it's tough on people's nerves.

[Project Healing Waters]

Phil, the Mississippi is flooding now from the combination of snow melt in the northern drainage and heavy rainfall in the heartland. The STL riverfront closed last week. We all know that the lower White River agricultural plains are flooded and the ag industry is bitching about late planting...or even no planting. That means MASSIVE crop insurance claims underwritten by the USDA along with soaring commodity prices. I read yesterday that American brewers are really feeling the pinch of higher ingredient costs (ie. BEER is going to get really expensive, too). A-B is the #1 customer of the rice growers in the lower White River drainage and upper Mississippi Delta, and Purina is #2. (so pet food will also go up...but that's not as serious of a political nightmare as BEER inflation!)

The bottom line: all of this water in the lakes is going NOWHERE until mid-summer at the earliest. And every time it rains 1" or more in 24 hours with these lakes at or above flood pool, everyone who lives near them is in for a rough ride. Combine that with rapid inflation of fuel and food prices just to make your summer even more "interesting." It's gonna be a tough year for the tourism/recreation industry of the Ozarks. The saving grace will be the fishing in the lakes (proper)...which generally improves with prolonged high water conditions (and we see that happening already). The tailwaters will be hit/miss depending on flood gates with excellent fishing in between flood releases. But folks really don't have a lot of play money right now. So better fishing MAY not translate into MORE fishing as well as it typically would.

So...good luck and best wishes to ALL of the folks who make their living from tourism in the Ozarks. I'm sure the diehards will be sure and toss y'all every dollar we can spare. And I hope that's enough to keep everyone's doors open.

Now if we can just remember to NEVER, EVER, EVER elect neo-conservative multi-national corporate bigshots to run every branch of the US government at the same time again...

[skeeter]

Perhaps if the Corp wouldn't shut down three generators at night ( see latest outflow report ) they could hold the lake level without resorting to the floodgates again. And while I'm thinking of it, I sure hope all the electricity generation caused by the high waters is being used in the grid and not just run into the ground. It sure would save a lot of CO2 emissions from the coal fired gen plants.

As for beer prices and rice growing on the Arkansas Grand Prarie region.....the last three years the rice growers have been screaming about lack of water in their "tanks" for paddy flooding due to the ongoing drought and the decline of the aquifer they pump out of . So they were building a pumping station on the White to remedy that situation. Then some guy swore he saw an Ivory Billed woodpecker right in the region where the pumping station was going in. Guess what happened....all construction was stopped by the Feds due to the noise from the electric powered water pumps might disturbed the "phantom" woodpecker.....that has never been seen again.

Beer and food costs in general are rising and will become a major concern due to increased costs of oil/diesel and the Ethanol scam. Less land planted in barley in the grain belt up North due to high corn prices has resulted in doubling and tripling the per bushel cost of barley, the world hops supply is at an all time low vs. demand and now rice is going through the roof.

MO State legislature is considering repealing the law requiring 10% Ethanol in all gas sold in the State. Seems like some of the legislators raise livestock and have seen their feed bills increase drastically because of their "mandate".

[Wayne SW/MO]

Perhaps if the Corp wouldn't shut down three generators at night ( see latest outflow report ) they could hold the lake level without resorting to the floodgates again.

Demand is very low at this time of the day because of temperatures and you can't turn power plants on and off, catch 22. I would think that they could crack the flood gates at night though and get rid of some water.

[Phil Lilley]

Wayne- I'd think they would be in flood control mode only because even if they needed to run water on account of power demand they couldn't. The there's no place to "get rid of" any water. Granted, they may be releasing a small amount from Bull Shoals- I haven't looked. You have to look at all 3 dams, Beaver, Table Rock and Bull Shoals exactly like you would Powersite- they are all spillways with turbines. If the rainfall we get is more than what a turbine can move, then they'll open a flood gate or two.

[Project Healing Waters]

Perhaps if the Corp wouldn't shut down three generators at night ( see latest outflow report ) they could hold the lake level without resorting to the floodgates again. And while I'm thinking of it, I sure hope all the electricity generation caused by the high waters is being used in the grid and not just run into the ground. It sure would save a lot of CO2 emissions from the coal fired gen plants.

As for beer prices and rice growing on the Arkansas Grand Prarie region.....the last three years the rice growers have been screaming about lack of water in their "tanks" for paddy flooding due to the ongoing drought and the decline of the aquifer they pump out of . So they were building a pumping station on the White to remedy that situation. Then some guy swore he saw an Ivory Billed woodpecker right in the region where the pumping station was going in. Guess what happened....all construction was stopped by the Feds due to the noise from the electric powered water pumps might disturbed the "phantom" woodpecker.....that has never been seen again.

Beer and food costs in general are rising and will become a major concern due to increased costs of oil/diesel and the Ethanol scam. Less land planted in barley in the grain belt up North due to high corn prices has resulted in doubling and tripling the per bushel cost of barley, the world hops supply is at an all time low vs. demand and now rice is going through the roof.

MO State legislature is considering repealing the law requiring 10% Ethanol in all gas sold in the State. Seems like some of the legislators raise livestock and have seen their feed bills increase drastically because of their "mandate".

Yes, farmers notoriously hate the weather no matter what kind they get. It's always "too dry" or "too wet." This is the nature of crop farming.

You are also correct about the barley shortages due to ethanol mandates and subsidies in the upper plains and Rockies. A "no plant" rice year in the rice belt will simply make matters worse for the brewers, but it will also adversely impact feed prices (again). And that translates into higher food costs across the board (again).

My real point was that when it comes to a question of tourism/recreation vs. agriculture, we all know which the powers that be choose...almost EVERY time. So, until the Mississippi drops enough to evacuate the flood water in the Delta, we're going to have lakes at/near flood pool. Typically, the big river starts to get back to normal flows in mid-July. But...as we saw in 1993...heavy rainfall in the warm season in the Midwest can delay that into the Fall.

On a positive note for sportsmen, if you love flooded timber duck hunting in AR and/or duck hunting the coastal marshes, it looks like this coming season could provide plenty of both! LOL If there's no rice in the Delta, the ducks will hit the timber harder than usual and then fly on south to the Gulf...or back into the corn belt if there's no snow pack.

It's all kind of like my oldest brother says when they ask him "paper or plastic?"

He looks off into the ceiling and does the "on the other hand" gesture and says, "Trees or seagulls...seagulls or trees. Which do I want to kill today?" Personally, I prefer to kill seagulls. We can't live without trees. But I think we'd make do without seagulls.