? For Al

[Al Agnew]

Al, those three hybrids didn't just miraculously appear. There was obviously interbreeding occurring in the 70s, albeit in low numbers. The collections do not sample the entire population of fish on the river, they get a prescribed "sample size" and go from there. To look at these collections and assume there is no way there are a few dozen spotted bass among the thousands of smallmouth is a bit naive.

Yeah, but the point is that there is NO, ZERO, NADA record of spotted bass in these streams prior to that point, and collections have been going on for a long time. If you look at Plfieger's book and at the collection points for each species of fish (not just bass), you'll see that a lot of species that would be considered pretty obscure and uncommon have been collected multiple times from these streams. And keep in mind that those hybrids I caught were small fish, less than 12 inches, and caught sometime in the mid-1970s, when both the silt traps on the upper Missouri and the Clean Water Act would have been taking effect. It's highly likely that those fish had just "moved in", rather than suddenly showing up from a tiny but long-existing population. It's probably even just as likely that they were the result of a bait bucket "stocking" from other waters. When you couple that with all the other evidence I just talked about, it's far more likely that they were the "pioneers" so to speak--some of the first fish to ever make their way into the places where they were found, rather than the first fish to ever show up from a tiny population that was always there.

[drew03cmc]

Anything to spin the "facts" your way, rather than accept the fact that a small population of spotted bass has lived in your streams MUCH longer than you believe. The facts appear to be that there has been interbreeding for far longer than you believe and if it is so, your Diversion Channel theory has to be reconsidered. It might have happened in very small scale, but it was happening.

You mention a major ecological change did not happen to coincide with the spotted bass "invasion", but a minor one, such as the average temperature in the stream rising a half degree or so, COULD trigger more successful spawning and an explosion in the spotted bass population.

[Al Agnew]

Show me where I'm spinning facts. Also show me how there could be a miniscule population of a species "forever" in these streams that suddenly exploded, and exploded IS the right word when you consider they went from zero (or in your theory, very nearly zero) to the dominant bass in the space of five to ten years or so, in habitat that is and always was perfectly suited for them with the only possible explanation being something so insignificant as a degree or so rise in average summer temperatures. There has to have been years in the past where the temps rose that much or more for a year or two, where if that was the factor, there would have suddenly been a minor explosion in their population. Also, that theory doesn't wash because they have been a major portion of the bass population in the Osage river system for many years prior to their appearance in the Meramec, and the Osage system is at the same latitude and presumably would have been under the same temperature regimen. For there to have been a change in habitat that caused their explosion, it would seem to me it would have to be something really significant, like the change of lower Black River from an undammed stream that was very clear and cool to one that became murky and warm because of water coming off the top of Clearwater Dam.

Anything is possible, I guess, and it's possible you're right and I'm wrong. But where is your evidence? I think I have plenty.

And I guess in the final analysis it doesn't really matter. The history is what it is, and the really salient fact is that spotted bass have done major damage to the smallmouth fisheries in these rivers. Unless you believe that the Subject That Shall, etc. etc. is a totally natural occurrence and is the one and only cause of their explosion in these streams, one way or another it was a human-caused and not a natural happening. And even that doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is what can or should be done about it.

[drew03cmc]

Show me where I'm spinning facts. Also show me how there could be a miniscule population of a species "forever" in these streams that suddenly exploded, and exploded IS the right word when you consider they went from zero (or in your theory, very nearly zero) to the dominant bass in the space of five to ten years or so, in habitat that is and always was perfectly suited for them with the only possible explanation being something so insignificant as a degree or so rise in average summer temperatures. There has to have been years in the past where the temps rose that much or more for a year or two, where if that was the factor, there would have suddenly been a minor explosion in their population. Also, that theory doesn't wash because they have been a major portion of the bass population in the Osage river system for many years prior to their appearance in the Meramec, and the Osage system is at the same latitude and presumably would have been under the same temperature regimen. For there to have been a change in habitat that caused their explosion, it would seem to me it would have to be something really significant, like the change of lower Black River from an undammed stream that was very clear and cool to one that became murky and warm because of water coming off the top of Clearwater Dam.

Anything is possible, I guess, and it's possible you're right and I'm wrong. But where is your evidence? I think I have plenty.

And I guess in the final analysis it doesn't really matter. The history is what it is, and the really salient fact is that spotted bass have done major damage to the smallmouth fisheries in these rivers. Unless you believe that the Subject That Shall, etc. etc. is a totally natural occurrence and is the one and only cause of their explosion in these streams, one way or another it was a human-caused and not a natural happening. And even that doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is what can or should be done about it.

I am not a proponent of TSTSNBM. I do not believe in it, it is all c**lical. Anyway, if a species had a small foothold in a body of water and only needed a minor change in one thing to truly explode, it is possible. I am simply suggesting that there may have been a very small, nearly insignificant population of spotted bass in the lower reaches of these streams. There aren't hybrids of two species if there aren't two species present in the first place, correct?

[eric1978]

Just sayin'.

[Outside Bend]

I am not a proponent of TSTSNBM. I do not believe in it, it is all c**lical. Anyway, if a species had a small foothold in a body of water and only needed a minor change in one thing to truly explode, it is possible. I am simply suggesting that there may have been a very small, nearly insignificant population of spotted bass in the lower reaches of these streams. There aren't hybrids of two species if there aren't two species present in the first place, correct?

For starters, it doesn't really make sense that Pflieger's methods would be able to sample all centrarchid species well, except for spotted bass. And if habitat's the issue, spots would've exploded earlier in the history of the Ozarks, when logging and open range made the rivers warmer and more turbid.

And when those issues were addressed- when fields returned to forests and efforts were made address sedimentation- you'd expect to see declines in spotted bass populations as habitat reverted to something more suitable to smallies.

Neither of those things happened. When the hypothesis doesn't fit the observed results...

[drew03cmc]

For starters, it doesn't really make sense that Pflieger's methods would be able to sample all centrarchid species well, except for spotted bass. And if habitat's the issue, spots would've exploded earlier in the history of the Ozarks, when logging and open range made the rivers warmer and more turbid.

And when those issues were addressed- when fields returned to forests and efforts were made address sedimentation- you'd expect to see declines in spotted bass populations as habitat reverted to something more suitable to smallies.

Neither of those things happened. When the hypothesis doesn't fit the observed results...

OB, where did the hybrids come from, if not from interbreeding?

[eric1978]

OB, where did the hybrids come from, if not from interbreeding?

Al stated that he caught those hybrids in the 70s, which logically follows the timeline of any of the three scenarios he proposed. He never said there weren't any spots in the Meramec watershed at that time, he said there were very few as it was the beginning of their migration.

[Outside Bend]

OB, where did the hybrids come from, if not from interbreeding?

From spots.

That doesn't make spots native to the Meramec- in fact you could point to it as more evidence spots aren't native, given that where the two species occur together, you don't see much interbreeding.

Either way, it only shifts the question a bit- if spots are native to the Meramec, and spots and smallies can interbreed, why wasn't anyone finding hybrids in the decades before the 1970's, when water conditions would've been much more hospitable to spots?

It just doesn't make sense that fishereis folks would be able to detect other large, uncommon species like white catfish and northern pike in the watershed, but not spotted bass. Jus' sayin.

If you repeatedly sample excellent spotted bass habitat and repeatedly find no spotted bass, what are the chances you're missing those spotted bass over and over again over the course of decades? Not very likely...

[Flysmallie]

but who's bass fishing with a 3wt?

Me.