Generation Outlook & Water Color

[Phil Lilley]

Copied from a thread on Table Rock.  It has the same importance to Taney.

Here's the most recent UPDATE I've received from the Corps-

Table Rock surcharge release ended 31 1800 Dec 2015.  Currently releasing 20,000 cfs and will do so until Bull Shoals gets to 684 elevation.  Bull Shoals is currently 681.69.

Beaver passing inflow with double firm power generation equivalent, 2000 dsf, according to the water control plan. Table Rock continuing its routine release of 20000 cfs continuing to evacuate storage.    Bull Shoals continuing to rise as releases are restricted by downstream conditions.

Rainfall/Forecast. Rain returns to the forecast starting Wednesday and remains in the forecast through Sunday night.  Next forecasted rainfall includes 1.4 inch rainfall depths for Little River Basins and 0.75 inch to 1 inch for all other SWL basins starting Wednesday this week.  7-Day QPF is:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1451913322

RISK ASSESSMENT.
(AMBER)  District Wide Flood Storage - with all Flood Risk Management Projects using flood storage. We are very concerned about the impacts of future rainfall as we look ahead to our rainy season. SWL begins 2016 with the White River System storage at 63%.  Forecasted rainfall will slow current flood storage evacuation efforts and possibly return Beaver and Table Rock Lakes to rising pools requiring increased releases to crest pools at or below the top of their respective conservation pools.

(AMBER) Table Rock is below its top of flood pool and continues to fall slowly, releases steady at 20,000 cfs. Weather forecast is favorable to evacuate flood storage for the next 3 days.  Rainfall forecast for about 1 inch over four days beginning Wednesday, this event could cause a rising pool and require increased releases.

WHITE RIVER SYSTEM.  Beaver will have a steady to slow falling trend.  Table Rock is falling slowly.  Bull Shoals is continuing to rise and will continue this trend.  BS and NF are restricted to firm power release because Newport gage remains above regulating stage; plan to initiate secondary releases by mid-week. GF is still restricted to firm power release because of downstream conditions at the Georgetown gage.

Beaver: elev 1129.12 (90% fs) and holding; release is double firm power generation equivalent, about 2000 dfs.
Table Rock: elev 929.7 (91% fs) and falling ; releasing 20K cfs. This release will continue for several weeks.
Bull Shoals: elev 681.65 (58%fs) and rising ; restricted to firm power (3750 dsf) release.
Norfork: elev 571.14 (63% fs) and cresting; restricted to firm power (1300 dsf) release.
Greer's Ferry: elev 474.79 (48% fs) and cresting; restricted to firm power (1200 dsf) release.

Current stage at Newport is 28.62' and falling; crested at 32.26 ft on 12/30 (21' regulating stage).
Current stage at Georgetown is at 27.48' and falling; crested  at 27.97 Saturday night (21' regulating stage).

Table Rock has dropped from 929.53 to 929.04 in the last 24 hours.

Bull Shoals has risen from 681.81 to 682.42 in the last 24 hours.

When BS hits 684 feet, they will cut back Table Rock's flow - to what I don't know.

The levels to watch is at Newport and Georgetown.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/

This shows the Mississippi continuing to rise.  They're not going to let go of any water here until these levels drop. 

You have to look at all the lakes in the White River chain as one lake...  we're in a holding pattern and will continue to be in one until - #1. the Mississippi goes down or #2.  we get a bunch more rain and they have to dump.

I don't see this changing for at least a week or two.

One to 1.5 inches forecasted for Thursday and Friday.

Our water clarity changed a few nights ago.  It's now a dingy green color- about 24 inch visibility.  While this should not affect fishing, it will affect how the fish see lures and bait and I think they will become more aggressive.

The change was cause by Table Rock turning over - that's what Shane Bush thinks.  He's MDC fisheries biologists for Taney and Table Rock.  Before the rains, Table Rock had not fully turned over.  This explains why the water coming over the flood gates right now is clear and the water from the turbines is off color.  It should clear up gradually as time goes on.

[Smithvillesteve]

Thanks for posting that info Phil. Its hard for a guy like me to decipher but I'm trying. We will hope and pray that your area does NOT get that rain, or as much as predicted, this week. A bunch of us are planning on coming down the last weekend of Jan. Any opinion on lake conditions by that time? Any opinion on what trout will be doing by then? I know thats 3 weeks away and with the current conditions and forecasts a lot can change. Stay safe. Stay dry!!

[Stevan]

Hey Phil;

I'm sure this flood, like the last, will change a lot of the lake characteristics especially from your place up to the cable.  For the sake of props and lower units, I'm hoping that in the near future you might be able to give us an updated 'How to Boat to the Dam' tutorial.  Your last one was worth its weight in gold.  Hope to see you all very soon for a winter trout trip.

[Phil Lilley]

21 hours ago, Stevan said:

Hey Phil;

I'm sure this flood, like the last, will change a lot of the lake characteristics especially from your place up to the cable.  For the sake of props and lower units, I'm hoping that in the near future you might be able to give us an updated 'How to Boat to the Dam' tutorial.  Your last one was worth its weight in gold.  Hope to see you all very soon for a winter trout trip.

My guess... July!!  By then we'll see the bottom of the lake - may be.

[mwfischer]

20 hours ago, Phil Lilley said:

My guess... July!!  By then we'll see the bottom of the lake - may be.

If the bottom contours have changed as much as they did in 2011, i'm sure some folks will probably "see the bottom" with their props over the next few weekends of fishing!  Might just have to chart where repairs originated and you'll get a good idea of where > 1.5 feet is.

[Phil Lilley]

50 minutes ago, mwfischer said:

If the bottom contours have changed as much as they did in 2011, i'm sure some folks will probably "see the bottom" with their props over the next few weekends of fishing!  Might just have to chart where repairs originated and you'll get a good idea of where > 1.5 feet is.

Ha Ha... there is no 1.5 feet unless you're 1.5 feet from a bank   Water will be this high for several weeks.

[Gatorjet]

Who needs all that wster, 1 1/2 feet? LOL.

Not sure there will be as much change. Didn't the flooding in 2011 last a lot longer? Giving the high water, and current more time to move things around. But then again, just that one flash flood in July really changed things at Fall Creek.

[Kansasfly09]

I know you've probably posted it thousands of times Phil but I'm looking to see where BS lake level is. Is it close to 684 yet? Still predicting that Table Rock will run 20,000 for a while? 

[Phil Lilley]

BS is at 684.44. No slow down in sight. I bet the Corps isn't worried about BS since they're able to run up to 6 units now. 

[Phil Lilley]

They've said they'd run this till Table Rock gets to 920. It's dropping almost 9 inches a day now so it could be down by next weekend???  Unless they start dumping Beaver