Stocks And Trade

[Phil Lilley]

Just wanted to start a thread and discuss the market. I know we have some traders out there. I'm seriously thinking about becoming an active trader instead of just letting my money sit in one fund and another.

I'm looking at:

F - Ford

COP - Conoco

WMT - Walmart

and a few others.

[X-KHP]

I've had good luck this year with:

Dodge & Cox

Fid Low Pr Stk

FKLN flex cap Growth A

HAR INTL INV

Spartan US EQ Index

Rest is in Mutuals

[ness]

It's been relatively hard to find stocks or stock funds that haven't performed well over the last six months or so. Same with bond funds, if they weren't governments.

When you said 'active trader', did you mean you were looking to buy and sell frequently? Are you wanting to take advantage of frequent, small price moves? If so, you've got a lot of competition -- very good competition.

I'd suggest you look at those stocks (or others) independently, make your decision and stick with it. Don't be influenced by short-term moves, the pundits, the day's economic indicators, etc. Turn off CNBC, ignore Jim Cramer, and don't check the stock price for, say, 6 months. If you don't have the temperament to do this, it may be you're better off in funds.

[ness]

Ness:

The old saying in the market is "it is not about timeing the market but time in the market" that has been the key to most of my success. I do check trends of the areas I invest but they are solid and I seldom make drastic changes and rely upon cooler heads for advice not someone who proports to have all of the answers and can make me money fast.

My point was, that after the rout of 2008 - early 2009, virtually all stock funds are up. The worst one I own personally is up about 29% year-to-date, and skimming over a list of stock funds, the lowest YTD return I see is 14%. So saying your portfolio has performed well over six months doesn't exactly set you apart.

Phil asked about the market and a few particular stocks saying he wanted to step out of funds, and I suggested an approach. I think it's tempting to get a little too into things -- like watching the financial shows, checking the market, counting your sheckles at the end of the day's trading, etc. For a guy just sticking his toe in the water, I'd suggest looking at it long-term. All that stuff is just a distraction. That's why I say just make your picks and forget about them for a while -- like, say, five years.

The investment world is full of old sayings, but here's one that speaks more to my approach: "Lethargy, bordering on sloth, should be the cornerstone of an investment strategy."

[Phil Lilley]

I've had money in funds and now stocks for a number of years. Not much. No nest egg - just a place to put some extra cash. To be honest, the resort is my investment/nest egg. Wasn't thinking of changing gears, just thinking about doing some day trading, at least I think that's what you call it.

I'll probably get shot down here anyhow... we have some major projects this winter at the resort and at home so my wife will probably nix this idea - no time to devote the attention and not enough funds.

But I am interested in learning. We'll see how it goes.

Did hear some interesting radio shows on the way home from deer camp last night on Fox Radio. They were talking about gold and how it may go up past $2000. Said it went to $860 in 1988? and with inflation that high equals $2500 in today's market so it's not unreasonable given our fragile economy.

[Micheal Kyle]

IMO and having worked for New Century Financial Investment Planners for a a few years after I graduated from college.

I have seen a lot of day traders lose what they have, I would start small with little dollar stocks, the ones you mentioned are well proven but rarely move from 2-5% in a day. those would be some great long term invetsment. (no worries) If you want to learn to day trade start out with some penny stocks ones that sale for 10-20 cents and watch them grow you have to watch them everyday to make them work. I bought some penny stocks one time for 30 cents/ share and sold it for 2.95/share took six months to get there with in a week of selling they dropped back to 10 cents and have never reached over a dollar/ share. (must Watch penny stocks everyday) Just remember this is the most risky thing you can do one day they are there one day they are gone.

I would find a local broker to deal with that you trust with your money give him some money to invest then start asking him questions about things you want to do he is involed in it everyday he will know . There are all kids of graphs to read then the news that come out everyday make sure you keep up on it. one thing that i watch on pennys is the amount of shares that trade hands every day. 52 week high and low are useful too. I would also look at their IRS reporting and see how stable they are.

Day trading can be very tricky and be very risky.

I used to own Walmart my grandfather bought 70 shares for me when I was 10 years old sold it when I got married and bought our first house. back in those days Walmart was splitting 1 to times a year. I think that they are about maxed out plus I would stay away from any thing dealing with the motor company. I like the oil company's Technology imagine if you would have bought goggle when it came out (IPO). I love tech stocks just remember do not invest any more than you are comfortable loosing.

On the gold and silver I think that a lot of people buy this when economic times are bad because it is a guarantee to hold its value well i guess there are really no guarantees, but I think you can understand.

Like ness said the market is up all over the board after the big fall 18 months ago do not fall into the trap of over inflated stocks thinking that they are a great deal then wake up one day and see you lost everything.

I like Jim Cramer

Maybe we should start a trading club I have been in voled with a few and they are fun.

I would be up for it.

[snagged in outlet 3]

Go get an Investors Business Daily and learn not only stock picking, but money management techniques for traders. Sometimes the best money made is the money you didn't lose. Several books from William O'neil will put you in the right place.

In my ignorant opinion, penny stocks or pink sheet stocks should be avoided. They don't have to adhere to any generally accepted accounting practices so fundamental analysis is out the window. If you do trade these things, most recommend using a strictly technical trading system.

SIO3

[ness]

OK -- if you're talking about 'day trading' then Backcountry's info is spot on. You always hear stories about people doubling, tripling, whatever, their money. Nobody ever talks about it when they lose. It's just about like going to the casino -- the odds are heavily stacked against you and you'll lose more often than you win.

I recently got satellite radio, and I hear the commercials on Fox radio. Pennystockchaser.com, buy gold now, etc. I'd ignore that BS. I'm not saying gold won't go to 2,000, but geez -- do you really want to jump in on something that's already moved up 50% (or whatever)? Penny stocks are, as Backcountry said, about as risky as it gets.

Buying Conoco for a long-term investment is probably not a bad bet. They sell oil, and we seem to be using quite a lot of it. Ford is the only US car company not to require a massive bailout, and are building good quality vehicles. They're kinda my sentimental favorite for just getting it right. They're certainly not out of the woods yet, but we're always gonna need cars, and I'd bet a lot of them will be Fords.

If you look at the industries that have been battered by all this, and pick out the guys that have done the best you're able to see who knows how to run a business. And, a lot of the stocks are still tamped down, just because. A couple that come to mind are GE, Ford or Wells Fargo.

[vacation]

Phil,

Be careful about gold, it is high right now (not always a great time to buy when high) but it could go higher.

When dealing with gold be sure to set up the right account because it is taxed differently than stocks.

I have had ford as a day trade and it just sat there too long to make a buck. Wal-mart, same thing.

I would suggest Scott trade b/c they have no inactivity fee and a flat trading fee; therefore, if you go away for a while and dont trade with them, they wont hit you with charges.

In daytrading you need to develop a formula and stick with it. (Ex. sell when you make 10% on everything and/or sell when your value goes down 10%)

Take your profits and cut you loses short.

[Phil Lilley]

Phil,

Be careful about gold, it is high right now (not always a great time to buy when high) but it could go higher.

When dealing with gold be sure to set up the right account because it is taxed differently than stocks.

I have had ford as a day trade and it just sat there too long to make a buck. Wal-mart, same thing.

I would suggest Scott trade b/c they have no inactivity fee and a flat trading fee; therefore, if you go away for a while and dont trade with them, they wont hit you with charges.

In daytrading you need to develop a formula and stick with it. (Ex. sell when you make 10% on everything and/or sell when your value goes down 10%)

Take your profits and cut you loses short.

Sounds reasonable. Thanks.

The Casino comparison is right. That's why IF I do this, I'll only use a small amount of investment, someone I can lose (same in going to a casino).

If nothing else, this is an interesting thread. I'm learning. Thanks.