Phil Lilley

Yeah it’s wrong. Lake level is correct

That's a great way to start. Thanks for posting.

I keep getting calls from friends wanting to know if I need help evacuating... I told them I don't think it's that bad. Actually, I'm not sure if it's bad at all. This "event" is so different than the other "floods" we've had. And this isn't a flood, not yet. Not even close. Flash floods, yes. We've had 2 in 2 days locally - north of town. Almost the exact some spot. Crazy. But most of this rain has fallen, again, east of Table Rock although some fell around Beaver and some in Table Rock. But more local rain and not widespread. I've been looking at the Kings, James, the White above Beaver and none are rising that much. I just don't see anything changing at Beaver or Table Rock. But the Corps may surprise us all. If they run, they don't have to spill over the top at Table Rock. They can run 15,000 through the turbines and that could be enough to keep up with the inflow. Beaver may move some water... but I don't see it rising. But there's plenty of rain in the forecast... one of the storms will put someone over - either Beaver or Table Rock. Then they will release. Flood gates, fishing wise, would be much better than 4 full units. It would bring shad in and warmer water. Trout will go nuts. But there will be heavy flows - no dock fishing or very little fishing off the banks. The flow won't be dangerous... I would consider anything over 25,000 cfs too high to send our rental boats out. I would go though. Over 30k - hummm may be not. But I'm not going to say for sure. Unless the rain just stops, we're going to see something soon. Full generation and/or spill gates. There's just too much water in the system. But flooding... where our guests would be asked to leave... I don't see that at all. The storms are moving through too fast.

Beaver is holding but supposed to get 2 inches today. TR 1 inch. That might put both lakes into their flood pools and they'll have to release. Unless they decide to let them go higher. It's hard to say anymore. Newport is up again.

They sure are pretty... and good eating!

Welcome. Hope you get out and enjoy some fishing soon. Everybody is antsy to get out I think.

36k... what's the most they've released at BSD?

Looks like BV, TR and BS - none will reach their flood pool level so no releases at this time. NF is releasing but not much, just enough to keep it below the FP mark.

15-16 was the highest for Taney

Looks like BS isn't going to hit flood pool so no changes to this pattern. Amazing the amount of water BS can take, esp at the upper end of the pool.

This was 12 years ago. Back then the talk was about all the concrete being used to fill what people called a "leak" at Beaver Dam. To be honest, I haven't heard anything about it since.

Yes he did. Last time I heard he was up at Pommey. I'll have to go back and read it. Actually all the old threads around flood times would be educational.

Starting to look greener already here. Be clear up lake. Me and Duane will go up to the dam and do One Cast shortly. You'll see how we do. It will definitely all be clear by tomorrow. Well, down to Branson at least. Then there's flood gates... may be tomorrow. We'll see.

Nice. Pretty country.

That's a mature one... pretty.

There's just a slight bump.

Yes

We got 3.25 inches total. BS got killed - 4-6 over the whole lake. I got an email from the Corps this morning. Said most likely see heavy flows this weekend from TR. Should get another email at any time. I will share. I'm hoping for 25,000 cfs or less from TR. That's 15k from turbines and 10k over the top. We can still get on our dock at that flow.

You're right... very stressful. That's why I don't criticize the Corps very often. It's an easy job if you have a crystal ball.

I hear a lot of stories from actual Corps to emergency management people and all of it makes my head spin. And when it spins, I tend to get confused. But... I heard from multiple people that in 2015-16 when the lake got the highest, they considered using the auxiliary spillway. It had something to do with the tailwater release - the elevation of the water and the earthened dam. Or something else on the Taney side of the dam. They felt like they couldn't go any higher for some reason. It had to be something important to be considering "Armageddon". It was something they had not considered previously - like when they built the dam. Again, it could be all smoke too. Nothing official for sure. I do know during the LAST one - 2017? - the fire department guys came down and told me to evacuate. They were throwing around the figure 140,000 cfs. That scared the crap of out us. But of course it didn't happen.

Auxiliary spillway being used would take out all of down town Branson up the hill to the hospital, might take out BS Dam unless they match the flow but then there's the initial push of water they'd have to control. Then everything below BS - how many towns? They (Congress) needs to rethink this whole process. I misspoke... congress doesn't think. A hydrologist engineer needs to come up with a new plan cause this one isn't working.

We've had 2.5 inches so far today but not even close as much west of here - over TR. North - James River - got more but not much over an inch. Another line coming through but it's not dumping a lot of rain, yet. It's moving pretty fast. BS got HAMMERED! 2-5 inches of rain. Just got an email from the Corps saying they are going to release water at TR "this weekend". I don't see how with BS being in its position. TR will get to flood stage sometime in the next 3-4 days unless the rain models are wrong. And so far, for most events, they've understated the rain. I'll get another email later today with specifics.

I will shortly.... I bet.