USACE Update: Beaver, Table Rock, Taney, Bull, Norfork, Greers...

[Phil Lilley]

Now that the rain is over and we see the downstream stages cresting and falling the following forecast is being made.

Looking out to the first week of July:

Beaver will hold near 1129' with release rates of firm power (90% flood storage in use). As the inflow recedes below firm power daily volumes, the firm power releases will start the pool on a slow fall.

Table Rock crested just under 923 feet and is starting to fall (39% flood storage in use). The total release is 10,000 CFS from the turbines and 11,600 from the spillway for a total of approximately 21,600 CFS. This will continue until the lake falls back to 920' which will happen about the 28th or 29th of this month. The release will be reduced to approximately 15,000 CFS at that point and will continue until either the lake falls to about 917' or the remaining flood control storage is equal to that which remains in Bull Shoals Lake. The flood control storage pool in Table Rock at a pool of 919' roughly equals the remaining storage in Bull Shoals at 687'.

Bull Shoals is at 681.5' this morning (55% flood storage in use) and will continue a rise of .7 to .8 feet per day as the Table Rock release holds at 21,600 CFS. When the Table Rock release falls back to 15,000 CFS, the rate of rise at Bull Shoals should be about .4 to .5 feet per day. The big factor that can either make or break the Bull Shoals forecast is the recession time for the Newport stage. Newport is at 15.5 feet this morning (12 feet is the regulation stage) and is starting to fall. The sooner the tributary inflow recedes, the sooner we can increase the Bull Shoals releases. As best I can tell, we will start a minor increase in daily releases before the end of the week. But, we will not be up to the Table Rock contributions before we have to start balancing the storage remaining. I believe we will see a balancing act about 2 July of 919' Table Rock and 688' Bull Shoals. At that point, the Table Rock releases will be trimmed to match the rate of recapture of flood control storage at Bull Shoals.


4 July pool forecast:

Beaver 1128.5'
Table Rock 919'
Bull Shoals 688'
Norfork 565'
Greers Ferry 470'

[Greasy B]

Thanks Phil, I was searching for the Newport control stage this morning trying to get a feel for how long the limited generation would last on the BS tailwater. Looks like the area dodged a bullet with limited damage and some inconvenience. Given the fry survival and the imporoved growth rates the extra water probably did more good than harm.

[JestersHK]

Rain rain go away I really want to be able to wade! LOL Heading back down to Taney in 2 weeks. Hopefully everything can get nice and settled down and back to a regular generation schedule maybe?

[Phil Lilley]

If we don't get a measurable amount of rain, they'll be cutting back by then.