Water Levels in the Spring - Friendly Speculation

[rps]

Since I moved here in 2002, the lake has endured four significant high water events (>925"). The present one is similar to 2008 and 2011 and earlier this year in water amount, but dissimilar in its timing. The other three came during the Spring and early summer.

In the previous years, to avoid flooding downriver, the Corps released water slowly but steadily.  As I recall, in 2011, very slowly would have been more apt.

The timing of this high water changes the ball game. Traditionally, potential high water problems occur in the Spring and the Corps wants the levels down. From what I read, the Mississippi won't crest until early next month and that crest looks to be dangerously high. That means the Corps will want to release from the White River system very slowly. However, they face the Spring deluge threat if they dawdle and then the Mississippi will surge again with snow melt in March, April, and May.

Talk about juggling odds and issues.

Any thoughts?

[Guest]

there's nowhere to move the water, flood stage is the new normal

[dtrs5kprs]

I think you nailed it in one. Spring is likely to be a mess. The old traditional bath tub at Bull now has less capacity to start with due to changes in the pool. Water from Beaver and TR will have to move through to Bull. What then? And that is assuming no more rain/snow in the near future, and not even beginning to account for the spring weather. 

Could they move water through if needed? Yes, but not without destructive consequences throughout the watershed/basin. That includes the Mississippi. 

We also have water running into the Missouri and Mississippi from weather north of the Ozarks. All that water is trying to get to the same place.

If I had to guess, there will be water in the bushes at TR in March/ April. 

[Ham]

It is a huge fubar to be sure. I'd love for them to run something less than 25,000 CFS out of Bull Shoals dam EVENTUALLY, but who knows.

Operating my little trout boat on the White is creepy at 25 K. I wonder what is was like at > 150,000 CFS like we had yesterday.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Ham said:

It is a huge fubar to be sure. I'd love for them to run something less than 25,000 CFS out of Bull Shoals dam EVENTUALLY, but who knows.

Operating my little trout boat on the White is creepy at 25 K. I wonder what is was like at > 150,000 CFS like we had yesterday.

I've run a boat in 100k cfs on the Ark River, something that I wont ever do again. There's a reason they put out a small craft advisory at 75k cfs. However, lakes like Dardanelle are still fishable at 200k+ cfs because the water spreads out. But narrow main channels are no joke. 

I grew up running a johnboat & 25hp on the Miss River. Looking back that was incredibly stupid.

[Greasy B]

I'm seeing one or two units out of BS. Unless what I'm reading is incorrect the Newport gage is controlling. Looks like prime time for a trout trip, well at least until they open it up. If we have a normal winter and spring Bull may stay in flood until summer. 

[Ham]

I really think they are holding off on generation because of the huge amounts of water coming into the White from the Buffalo and Crooked Creek. There is a lot of water running into it from every little creek and drain, but the White is still getting great than 100K from the two main sources.

Look for the BSL to be releasing MAX water for months straight once the other run off slows down.

[Ham]

1 hour ago, TrophyFishR said:

I grew up running a johnboat & 25hp on the Miss River. Looking back that was incredibly stupid.

Not really. It depends on what time a year and how much flow was happening. I've been on the Mississippi when it was low and slow. Geravel bars were the biggest threat. And I've been on it when there big whirlpools and boiling water that were almost overpowering the boat. Big freaking logs randomly popping up from beneath the surface. Scary stuff.

[Quillback]

I'd like to see the Corps issue a press release stating what their plans are for all this dang water.  My guess is that they will do their best to pull TR down to 915 and Beaver down to 1120 as soon as they can.  As far as Bull, it seems they use Bull as a catch basin until they get the rest of the system where they want it.

[dtrs5kprs]

33 minutes ago, Ham said:

Not really. It depends on what time a year and how much flow was happening. I've been on the Mississippi when it was low and slow. Geravel bars were the biggest threat. And I've been on it when there big whirlpools and boiling water that were almost overpowering the boat. Big freaking logs randomly popping up from beneath the surface. Scary stuff.

The big river is always scary, at least from the Twin Cities down. Once it gets big, and the flow is controlled to maintain that commercial channel it is enigmatically dangerous.