MickinMO Posted June 5, 2020 Posted June 5, 2020 One good thing is that it at least appears to move fast and not stall out. snagged in outlet 3 1
MickinMO Posted June 6, 2020 Author Posted June 6, 2020 Updated storm track cone and rainfall forecast. Forecast track hasn't changed much for center of circulation. Width of uncertainty just getting smaller. Maybe a slight trend east snagged in outlet 3 1
Root Admin Phil Lilley Posted June 6, 2020 Root Admin Posted June 6, 2020 It is trending east... that's huge for us. But Bull Shoals and the White River... not good. I hope they can stay on top of it. MickinMO 1
MickinMO Posted June 6, 2020 Author Posted June 6, 2020 More model data here: Also, follow Ryan Maue on twitter. snagged in outlet 3 1
Devan S. Posted June 6, 2020 Posted June 6, 2020 Its increasingly looking like at least at least TRL and BV will be missed. BS will mostly be missed based on current data....IIRC systems like this effectively become moisture starved on the back side(west). The big hiccup will be the white river and subsequently the MS river drainage prolonging BS ability to release water downstream. All that being said....It's hotter than blazes out there today and its been awfully sunny and warm for 4-5 days now. Lots of acres of hay is being put down and frankly I think we could handle a nice widespread rain on Tuesday. KY3 is showing sunny and warm everyday except for Tuesday. Old timers use to say it this time of year it could rain 2" today and we could be in a drought in less than 4 weeks. We may find ourselves in that situation even though were 40-50% ahead on rainfall for the year. Phil Lilley and Terrierman 2
MickinMO Posted June 7, 2020 Author Posted June 7, 2020 Updated forecast maps: Although not great considering how full the lakes are, max rainfall in the 3" range. A few local amounts up to 6" possible in north central Arkansas and south central MO. A few days ago there was a swath of 4-6" totals in the forecast all the way through central and eastern Arkansas and central MO. I'd put more stock in the local office maps at this juncture to pinpoint more exact areas of rainfall amounts. The 7 day QPF is based entirely on computer models and is a good source for rain potential and areas that will get rain. Pretty good consensus with the local offices snagged in outlet 3 1
Terrierman Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 On 6/6/2020 at 2:44 PM, Devan S. said: Its increasingly looking like at least at least TRL and BV will be missed. BS will mostly be missed based on current data....IIRC systems like this effectively become moisture starved on the back side(west). The big hiccup will be the white river and subsequently the MS river drainage prolonging BS ability to release water downstream. All that being said....It's hotter than blazes out there today and its been awfully sunny and warm for 4-5 days now. Lots of acres of hay is being put down and frankly I think we could handle a nice widespread rain on Tuesday. KY3 is showing sunny and warm everyday except for Tuesday. Old timers use to say it this time of year it could rain 2" today and we could be in a drought in less than 4 weeks. We may find ourselves in that situation even though were 40-50% ahead on rainfall for the year. I'm running the sprinkler on the garden right now. MickinMO 1
MickinMO Posted June 7, 2020 Author Posted June 7, 2020 Still trending further east with 4pm advisory
Quillback Posted June 7, 2020 Posted June 7, 2020 An inch or so wouldn't hurt in this area. MickinMO 1
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