Smallmouth, Rock Bass Survey

[ozark trout fisher]

They did a Survey on Bonus Tags for Deer on alot of CA next year Bonus Tags were not allowed but I have a feeling MDC had their mind made up so the Survey didn't mean squat.

I really think the MDC decides to make changes but runs these Surveys just to look good.

oneshot

How come they so often change their mind based on public opinion? They were going to raise the price on deer tags and fishing licenses a couple years ago, but everyone was throwing a hissy fit because they weren't willing to pay an extra five bucks to help our conservation department provide us with quality hunting and fishing. And sure enough, they changed their mind.

The MDC does listen to our opinions-maybe too much, in the since that it makes it difficult for them to make good, practical decisions.

[Brian Jones]

I got a blue card as well. I filled it out and sent it back. If I get a survey I'll give them my honest opinion and go from there. I feel that it is my duty to give an opinion when asked. It is the MDC's duty to manage the state's wildlife resources in a way that benefits the most and is not detrimental to the resource itself. Given the MDC's overall track record, I'd say they've done a lot more good than bad.

[Terry Beeson]

Well, I quit checking this thread, but now I see I would have done well to keep up...

Why not solicit every angler? Simple ... Statistical data is easily gathered in a random sampling basis to get the facts about the whole population (all anglers.) Gavin has some fine points about this. But it boils down to this - if done properly, the sample will yield just as good results as the population. Take for instance political polls. How often do you see polls "predict" a winner that is not correct. And if it DOES miss, the margin is within that "plus or minus 4 percentage points" they give you.

Statistical analysis is used extensively in business and our every day lives whether we realize it or not. Weather predictions are based on statistical data. What larger stores stock on their shelves is based on statistical analysis.

Now for the downside - Notice I said before "if done properly..." The old statistician's quote is "tortured statistics will confess anything." Many things from how the sample size is determined to how the questions are phrased can skew statistical data. For instance, if I chose to send the cards to random people all over the world, or even if I just sent them to a number of people living in Missouri vs. sending them only to people with fishing permits. Can you see how the results would be different?

I am a Six Sigma Black Belt which is a certification program for statisticians. So, I am always questioning how surveys are done and what results actually tell us. I usually take many statistical reports with a grain of salt until I examine more than just the results as presented by the presenter. Does he have an agenda and skewing the results in his favor?

I'll give you an example... Many years ago, there was a report given to congress on a statistical study done about education. Those giving the report were looking to boost funding for education in the US. The report stated that "half the people in America are below average in intelligence." This shocked Congress into passing the bill with the idea that they needed to do this to bring more Americans to a level above average...

Well, if you understand what "average" means, then you would know that it is the middle - with half above and half below. So, naturally, half the people are below average... in anything... And no amount of education would change that.

Anyway, I'm not convinced MDC is up to anything bad. I'll wait for the results and then make a determination.

[ColdWaterFshr]

MDC? . . . believe me folks, they got info on you people. And its more than just DOB and what caliber of fisherman you are. If you got a card in the mail, it isn't by accident, and it isn't part of some random sample.

I've been deep in the bowels of the MDC HQ in Jeff City. They are high-tech. Each of you has a substantial file. They store your files on microscopic little mylar sheets and they can view it with this device called micro-fish. And they have a whole dimly lit warehouse of micro-fish files and it has information on you and how you fish, where you fish, what time you last fished, who you fished with, how many you ate, how many times you got snagged, how many beers you had and so forth. And over in the corner is a team of former and retired field agents, studying your micro-fish files, laboriously late into the night. They mostly work late at night, which is why so little is known about what they are doing.

[ness]

Well, if you understand what "average" means, then you would know that it is the middle - with half above and half below. So, naturally, half the people are below average... in anything... And no amount of education would change that.

Given 1,2,3: average = 2, median = 2

Given 1,2,6: average = 3, median = 2

Sounds like a "median" to me, but I'm just picking nits

[eric1978]

MDC? . . . believe me folks, they got info on you people. And its more than just DOB and what caliber of fisherman you are. If you got a card in the mail, it isn't by accident, and it isn't part of some random sample.

I've been deep in the bowels of the MDC HQ in Jeff City. They are high-tech. Each of you has a substantial file. They store your files on microscopic little mylar sheets and they can view it with this device called micro-fish. And they have a whole dimly lit warehouse of micro-fish files and it has information on you and how you fish, where you fish, what time you last fished, who you fished with, how many you ate, how many times you got snagged, how many beers you had and so forth. And over in the corner is a team of former and retired field agents, studying your micro-fish files, laboriously late into the night. They mostly work late at night, which is why so little is known about what they are doing.

It's microfiche, not fish. You had me going until mylar, though...good one.

[Terry Beeson]

Given 1,2,3: average = 2, median = 2

Given 1,2,6: average = 3, median = 2

Sounds like a "median" to me, but I'm just picking nits

You are correct in those examples, ness. But you're using three numbers, so to compare to what I'm talking about is not apples to apples.

In a population of significant size (like the number of people in the US or the number of anglers in Missouri) the mean and median (and the mode in most cases) will be very similar if not the same. In statistics, it's called the law of central tendency and in graphic form, will resemble a bell (thus called the "bell shaped curve.") This is referred to as the "normal distribution curve" and is the standard by which polls, surveys, and other sample measurements are compared. In this curve, the center of the curve is the mean average, so half the population lies below the average and half above.

Furthermore, we can discuss the width or spread of the curve which is measured in "standard deviations" signified with the term and Greek letter "sigma." This would be where your example would be tested if it were two samples taken from the same population. The sigma for #2 would be greater than #1, therefore the probability factors would change to the point that the significance factor would still hold true for the population given the two samples. This would be where the disclaimer given when the news reports the results of a survey/poll about the "plus or minus four percentage points."

Then we could discuss where some population factors result in an exponential, bimodal, or other "non-normal" distribution...

[ColdWaterFshr]

Thanks for bringing up horrifying memories of my college statistics classes, Terry. But I'm going to go out on a limb here and tell you that you got this whole teacher-student thing backwards with Mr. Ness, especially as it relates to mathematics or statistical analysis.

[joeD]

A random survey of a random sample of fishermen. That's all it is. Good grief.

[Wayne SW/MO]

What about the Ozark Bass?