Lake Level Record Potential

[Alex Heitman]

I just read that they are predicting Table Rock to crest at 935.6 just a tenth above the record from 2011. I'm hoping for everyone's sake it does not reach this level or get higher. This weather has been crazy and I hope everyone stays safe and does not receive any damage from this event. God Bless

[cheesemaster]

At what point does it go over the top of the dam? I thought 935.5 in 2011 it was the highest it could possibly be. 

[Fishin Hodge]

Where did you read that Alex.  I have been looking for info online, finding some, but hadn't read that.

Cheese, top of flood pool is at 931.  It can go higher, but at that point the CoE cannot control the release, at least that is my understanding.  It is simply flowing over the flood gates at that point.  To go higher than the flood gates and stay or even go up is a truly unbelievable amount of water.

The Corp has kept all our lakes on the high side of what I would consider normal for this time of year, With Bull staying above 660 for all but about 5 minutes over the last 9 months.  Pathetic management. This one may have flooded BPS in Branson, and if that happened, then maybe Johnny will go to work for us.

[cheesemaster]

I am closing on a cabin tomorrow at 9am across from Cape Fair. I better go down there and see if I still want it, might be under water. 

[Alex Heitman]

I read it on this Facebook page. Here is a screen shot from it. 

[Fishin Hodge]

Thanks man.

[Ben Gillispie]

44 minutes ago, Fishin Hodge said:

Where did you read that Alex.  I have been looking for info online, finding some, but hadn't read that.

Cheese, top of flood pool is at 931.  It can go higher, but at that point the CoE cannot control the release, at least that is my understanding.  It is simply flowing over the flood gates at that point.  To go higher than the flood gates and stay or even go up is a truly unbelievable amount of water.

The Corp has kept all our lakes on the high side of what I would consider normal for this time of year, With Bull staying above 660 for all but about 5 minutes over the last 9 months.  Pathetic management. This one may have flooded BPS in Branson, and if that happened, then maybe Johnny will go to work for us.

Table Rock has been brought down to 915 or 917 (this is conservation pool, enough to generate power) as quick as they can after each rain event. Bull Shoals has stayed a bit higher than normal due to water frequently flowing over Powersite from Taneycomo (it is designed this way), which comes from them dropping Table Rock, and Beaver behind that, to make room for events like we're experiencing now.

They've done an excellent job. They are very smart people. Engineers. Numbers don't lie. 

They don't act on forecasts, suspicions of rain, or anything else. Only facts and numbers. 

All in my Humble Opinion

P.S. If Johnny is mad his BPS gets water in it, which at this time it is not, then maybe he shouldn't have built a BPS on a flood plane?

 

1 hour ago, cheesemaster said:

At what point does it go over the top of the dam? I thought 935.5 in 2011 it was the highest it could possibly be. 

931 is top of flood pool, but this is NOT top of Dam.

At 937 it's 6ft above flood pool, which causes Corps to further open all 10 Tainter gates, with discharges reaching 200-300,000 CFS. In comparison, they're running just under 70,000CFS (cubic feet per second) today. 

If it begins rising past 937, up to 941, they'll open all 10 Tainter gates even further, releasing up to 450,000 CFS

If the lake is still rising, the Auxiliary Spillway comes online, which essentially amounts to saving the integrity of the Dam, at the expense of Branson, Hollister, and Powersite Dam likely. This is about 1 million CFS. 

SO, the good news is, they're thinking 935-936. Let's all hope and pray that is the case. 

Ben

 

 

[GREENTRITON]

How long would it take to reach 935??  Several days or weeks???

[Alex Heitman]

I would say a few days 

[Fishin Hodge]

I agree with building in a flood plane completely, not smart, anytime anywhere.

Just another year of 695 on Bull Shoals... Nothing new there....

I am an advocate for lowering the lakes more during the winter.  I am not an engineer, but sure does seem like Table Rock and Bull Shoals are at full capacity a little too often for my liking.