Updated Forecast, 4/28 11 am

[Phil Lilley]

Just got off a conference call with the National Weather Service and the Corps.  Here's the gust of the news.

Storms will form tonight between 7-8 pm on the Mo Ark border, may be close to the Branson area instead of further in NW Ark like they thought yesterday.  This would be a good thing because some of the rain would fall past Table Rock's watershed into the Taneycomo/Bull Shoals area.  Expecting 1-2 inches of heavy rain with the initial front.

Then 3 inches is expected for Saturday into Sunday morning with totals of 3-6 inches area wide.  That's the official forecast - 3-6 inches with isolated spots of up to 8-10 inches.

The NWS did say that there's one weather model that is showing a shift of the heaviest rain north of our watershed - up from the Joplin to Warsaw area.  But he warned that this is just one possibility that they are watching.  He sounded cautiously optimistic.

So there is some hope that this won't be the catastrophic event that was feared yesterday.  But we won't know till the rain is on the ground.

They are releasing 15,000 cfs at Table Rock and will stay at that release till Table Rock reaches 920 feet in which they will increase to 20,000 cfs.  At 930 feet, the flow will increase to whatever they deem appropriate to keep the water from breaching the dam.

[Ben Gillispie]

Thanks a lot Phil. Hope you all are prepared. I got my grandparents all situated, they'll head out by tomorrow morning. The NWS written forecast is likely what results from the calls you listen in on so is very similar. It gives good detail similar to what you've mentioned. Anyone who would like it the link is below. They usually update mid day, anytime now:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=SGF&issuedby=SGF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

The most important thing you said is that we'll just have to see what hits the ground. The engineers at the Corps are sticklers for certanties - as they should be.....bring on the gripes about them not premptively releasing....decisions of the magnitude they make cannot be based upon anytihng but fact, anything less would be careless.

Let's hope that the 8" moves north of here past the James and doesn't fall on Beaver, either. 

Ben

[Phil Lilley]

If anyone can find something that shows close to realtime precipitation amounts, that would be helpful to those who are watching this storm move through.  KY3 has something like that but was way off during the last rain.

[Smalliebigs]

Phil this is the one I use.....not exactly realtime but, you can do One hour totals and storm totals.....it's updated every 6 minutes or so

 

  https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=SGF&product=N1P&overlay=11101111&loop=yes 

 

  go to the right side under the rainfall tab and update the loop

[JestersHK]

Hope you guys are staying safe down there.  Praying it is not as bad as they are expecting..