And it is still my favorite lake to fish in Missouri..

[Mitch f]

27 minutes ago, ColdWaterFshr said:

The data don't lie, does it!  Thank you for sharing with us your records.   Certainly an interesting 35+ year record.  I guess there might be something to that whole notion of climate change.

 

Either that or more cow poop in the water. 

[MrGiggles]

3 hours ago, straw hat said:

Well, I hope I don't stir up anyone but just a list of stuff that may or may not indicate what some of the issues may be.

 

High water temps.

As many know I keep detailed records of my fishing trips. Some data from these records.

1985 to 2002 - Highest temperature readings during the summer months - 77F

2002 to 2017 - Summer high temperatures steaily increasing from 77F to 79F

2017 - 80F for first time.

2018 to 2020 - Steady rise from 80F to 83F

2021 so far - 83F and this is only mid-June

 

Lethal Temperture limit for black crappie is 82F and white crappie 85F (these numbers vary by a degree or two depending on the research you read). I also seem to remember that the numbers for Largemouths are similar. Smallmouths and Walleye are a bit more sensative.

Temperature avoidance for crappie peaks around 80F. Crappie will typically begin actively searching for cooler water at 80F and may leave an area all together if necessary.

During 1985 to 2002 we routinely caught 15 to 30 crappie on most summer trips.

2003 to current the number of keeper crappie have steadily decreased with an average of 1 to 2 keeper crappie a trip currently.

Some clarification. All the data is based on fishing from CC to Shaw's bluff during June - August.

That area averages  shallower than main lake areas and therefore would heat faster.

Water quality in general has decreased during the last 15 years with more livestock waste washing in, matts of floating algae as well as filamentous algae (even in the main lake) however the increase in rainfall the last few years has helped offset any low oxygen levels by organic material.

There have been several research articles by various agencies on the link beetween increased temperatures and decreased size of things like fox, rabbits, squirrels and other mammals.

I am sure that as water temperatures rise above 80F fish will probably feed less and grow slower.

Interested in everyones feed back. 

 

 

Just curious about how you collected temp data back before we had these fancy graphs? 

They say that global warming is only like a third of a degree per year, hard to imagine it would cause such an increase in water temps, but I'm no scientist.

Still very interesting data.

Climate change is no big hoax, just seems that people don't seem to understand it is simply a trend over a long period, and that instead just causing warmer temperatures across the board, it causes more extreme swings in all types of inclement weather, drought, floods, heat waves, cold spells, etc.

[MoCarp]

3 hours ago, straw hat said:

Well, I hope I don't stir up anyone but just a list of stuff that may or may not indicate what some of the issues may be.

 

High water temps.

 

 

 

Temps have been cyclical late 70s early 80s. 1st few years of Stockton impounded and start of fishing was marked by very cold winters followed by drought and short scorching summers, back then the lake had pike...water was much more fertile....less fishing pressure for certain, late 2000s winters were very mild summers brutally hot....now is gone the other way last year we set a record for sub 90 days don’t think we hit 100 much if any, normally last week of June to 1st 2 weeks of aug I stayed of the lakes and fished streams hotter the better...spooks and small white buzz baits....lakes were a waste unless it was night...got into carping then less BS from fighting people...only issues was if BFers got wind of a chummed up area...One reason camouflage became the thing

 Chumming  deeper To keep fish out of range...now after a decade or so of heaver BFing the carp got smart or got dead...other than the spawn they shoot more buff and gar than carp....many of the smallish Kansas waters don’t allow BFing but the catfish will drive you crazy some spots 20-1 Channels to carp....are a few spots in the white river chain with good sized carp, just get a ton of pressure...spawn is when they get hammered one reason I think bigger bass size is down on the rock...not as many baby carp to eat when the YOY bass need that big jump in growth out of the box...somewhere posted a nutritionist look at rainbow trout vs common carp  everyone knows what a bass munching on trout looks like HUGE! Common carp exceeds fat and calories of trout....Ether way all anglers want bigger fish

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[straw hat]

ColdWaterFshr - Global warming could certainly contribute but there are so many other things as well. How muddy was the water and for how long (muddy water is darker and heats more), how much algae in the water (it also is daarker), how much wind (during summer wind helps cool a lake), and many more variables.

Mitch f - More cow poop more algae and darker the water as well as lower oxygen especially in the summer.

MrGiggles - I have always (even now) measured water temperature using a submersible thermometer at a depth of 5'. These black transducers on a summer day can read several degrees high in the afternoon due to sun absorption.

"They say that global warming is only like a third of a degree per year, hard to imagine it would cause such an increase in water temps, but I'm no scientist."

That number is in line with what I have heard. A third of a degree/yr in 21 years is a 7 degree rise in temperature. Most algae will double its growth rate every 10 to 20 degree rise in temperature depending on the species. This means that all things being equal algae growth would increase by 33 to 70%, this would darken the water more and further raise temperatures. It also doesn't allow for the increase in lake fertility due to any increase in livestock waste coming in the lake.

"Climate change is no big hoax, just seems that people don't seem to understand it is simply a trend over a long period, and that instead just causing warmer temperatures across the board, it causes more extreme swings in all types of inclement weather, drought, floods, heat waves, cold spells, etc."

You hit on a sore point for me. What you said is very very true. When I was in Graduate school we studies the first scientist (I think his name was greenberg or somethingh like that) who wrote a paper on "ecological warming" in the early 70's?  He stated just what you stated above. The government came down on him hard for such a theory as ridiculous and a scare tactics. The governemnt even put out a paper rebuting his theory and banned him from government symposiums on the environment. Pressure by other scientists and the government caused him to loose his job. Within 10 years all the scientists and the government  were using the term global warming but it was too late for him. The damage had been done to his life. I don't know what ever happened to him.

MoCarp - OK MoCarp, internet illiterate here. What is a BFer? lol

[MoCarp]

4 hours ago, straw hat said:

MoCarp - OK MoCarp, internet illiterate here. What is a BFer? lol

It is bowfisherman

global warming isn’t a hoax, we have been warming since the end of the last ice age about 12k years ago...paleo weather is a interest of mine. Been studying it that last 10 years or so...,but man caused global warming is the big question....

8000 years ago we were warm than today sea level was higher it’s called the Holocene optimum or today now called Holocene thermal maxim ( politics). It would do to call it optimum....no farting cows or carbon belching Buick’s or coal fired power plants...

it seems Viking settlers could survive early settlements in Greenland or was it Iceland🤔🤔🤔

but a return to colder times and advancing glaciers returning In the 6th century, until the 1850s  
the “little ice age” 
Seems a few Central American volcano erupted causing some cooler weather. Some theories on it ending the Olmec and Mayan civilizations and causing the dark ages...perhaps contributed to plague outbreaks and ultimately the fall of Rome....worthy reading 

 

 

[straw hat]

HAHA, I thought it might stand for bank fisherman. Makes sense.

That history lesson is so true.  Time will tell how things things turn out.