Flood watch

[Quillback]

I would not mind seeing the lake come up another foot or two, just hope things don't get too crazy.

• ... FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
• THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
• * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS... IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... PHELPS AND PULASKI. IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI... DENT... HOWELL... OREGON... SHANNON AND TEXAS. IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... BARRY... CHRISTIAN... DOUGLAS... GREENE... LACLEDE... LAWRENCE... MCDONALD... NEWTON... OZARK... STONE... TANEY... WEBSTER AND WRIGHT.
• * FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
• * WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE REGION. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
• * THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF CREEKS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. SIGNIFICANT RISES AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON LARGER STEM RIVERS.
• PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
• A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS.
• YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

[dtrs5kprs]

If they follow their post 2011 pattern, the corps will pull it back to, or below, power pool as soon as it peaks anyway. Can't see them letting it stay in the bushes this early, unless there are serious issues downstream.

[Chunk Rock]

One of the best trips I had at Tablerock the lake was 3' high. And the worst it was 22' high. Hope it doesn't get crazy!

[dtrs5kprs]

930 can be a lot of fun, if you can get on the lake, and if you don't live on it.

[Ham]

Table Rock is just about as good as it gets when the water is up on the picnic tables and in the trees in springtime. All the kraken that see 1000 baits a day get stupid and eat big ole spinnerbaits. Its a special deal.

I hate on the COE as much as anybody, but the lakes are managed for flood control first and everything else a very distant second.

I love high water in springtime, but I understand why they err on the side of caution.

[rps]

Drat!

I was nearly finished with an informative paragraph on lake levels when I touched the wrong key and made it all disappear.

For the second time:

The four major White River lakes, Beaver, Tablerock, Bull Shoals, and Norfork are federal projects run under a Congressional mandate. That legislation specifies the lakes are first and primarily flood control lakes. The four lakes are run as a unit based upon water levels, historic rainfall tables, and the water levels down stream in the Delta. The only public opinion in that decision process is that of the farmers.

Subject to that priority, the second purpose is the production of hydroelectric power. SWPA is a federal quasi commercial entity established by Congress to manage the second priority. My good friend Larry Yadon is the general counsel for them. SWPA has contracts with the electric coops that serve Arkansas and Missouri, as well as other providers "on the grid." Essentially all discharges are governed by supply and demand for electric power. That is the reason you are most likely to see generation during peak electric use hours in the morning and especially the evening.

The contracts do have limits on the electric dictating lake level. Above certain levels for each of the lakes, generation control ceases. For Tablerock that level is in the 920's. Below certain lake levels also triggers generation limits. For Tablerock that level is somewhere near 908 or 910. I apologize for not remembering the exact number.

There is really no third priority or public input in the process. If priority 1 or 2 dictates that homes below Beaver be flooded, history shows they will make that happen. If priority 1 or 2 dictates that marinas sit on mud flats, history shows they will mke that happen.

The only exception to this of which I am aware are the "minimum flow" standards that apply to the areas below Bull Shoals and Norfolk. Those are not law, but the COE has agreed to mostly follow those guidelines to get TU off their back.

Bottom line - if anyone wants to change the way things occur, one must muster political clout which outweighs the farmers plus the electric coops plus the entrenched bureaucrats at COE and SWPA. That is a formidable task, as TU found.

[abkeenan]

RPS,

Not sure if you tried this but after typing a novel and accidentally deleting it hit the right click on the mouse and click "undo" and sometimes you can bring back what you typed. Just for future reference as I have done that before as well.

[Guest]

Theses smaller flood events & heavy rains plus snow melt in early March have "primed the pump" for a big time flood event.

If you look back at the 2008 & 2011 floods, which were 200 year flood events, they were preceded by several smaller floods.

Hopefully that isn't the case, but the trend is going in that direction. Only time will tell.

[abkeenan]

Table Rock is just about as good as it gets when the water is up on the picnic tables and in the trees in springtime. All the kraken that see 1000 baits a day get stupid and eat big ole spinnerbaits. Its a special deal.

I hate on the COE as much as anybody, but the lakes are managed for flood control first and everything else a very distant second.

I love high water in springtime, but I understand why they err on the side of caution.

I agree. Best fishing I've ever had on Table Rock was when the water was up in the trees in early May in 2011 maybe? Fish were just loaded in the tree line in about 5-12 feet of water. If there was a tree with green leaves in the water in that range it had fish in it. The percentage of 15-20" fish was crazy good too.

[dtrs5kprs]

That wasn't COE hate on my part, just a guess at what they will do based on recent behavior. Personally, power pool or a little low wouldn't bother me any. High water is fun, but tying the boat to Leon's swingset gets old.