Super El Nino 2026

[Phil Lilley]

I'm in the process of educating myself of this and what it means, yes for the world, but more for the Midwest.

https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths/

I'm trying to stay away from the news outlets that try to write narratives into the facts and/or predictions but regardless, everyone is saying this weather event could be very devastating to the world economy.

[Nick Adams]

Between that and oil/gas prices, things are going to get a little weird.

Here's an interesting article with a lot of links.

'The biggest El Niño event since the 1870s': 'Super' El Niño is now the most likely scenario by the end of this year ‪—‬ and the humanitarian cost could be huge

[Quillback]

Old Chinese curse - "May you live in interesting times".  

[snagged in outlet 3]

I watch some of the YouTube meteorologist's.   They seem pretty independent.  

[WestCentralFisher]

As someone who enjoys fishing in Colorado, I'm very worried about the long term effects of the record low snowpack this year. It's very bad throughout the southern Rockies. Marginally less bad in the northern Rockies but largely not great. 

So far, at least my particular corner of the Ozarks has been in what feels like a protective bubble with great water conditions and mostly top-notch fishing the past couple months. But of course it's only May, and we will see what the year brings. Last year, we had too much water until mid-July, and then we descended into a major drought by late July or early August that only ended in April.

Early August 2025-March 2026 had a really high proportion of my slowest fishing days in years. There were some good ones here and there too, but by and large it was real tough. 

[Al Agnew]

Since I live in both places, I'm watching what might happen both in Montana and the Ozarks.  My part of Montana just went through one of the warmest winters on record, with very little low snow, although supposedly the high mountains got near normal snow pack.  But the Yellowstone is not going to get very high and not stay high very long this spring; it's been mostly jumping up and down as temperatures went from warmer than normal and melting high snow to cool and slowing the snowmelt.  We already had a fire nearby that, fortunately, has been mostly controlled because of a couple days of cold, wet weather.  So if this El Nino warms temperatures like they predict for this coming winter, it could be a disaster for Montana trout streams.  

As for the Ozarks...well, a warmer than normal winter might give me more days of angling.  But it isn't just warmth, it's what a warmer than normal winter does to the volatility of the weather.  Will it mean more drought, or bigger floods (or both)?