TR Lake Level going forward

[Quillback]

10 hours ago, mixermarkb said:

 and they have three full lakes to make power with all summer long. 

 

 

But they can't run full generation as long as they are regulating to the Newport AR gauge, so instead of using the water for generation it gets dumped when the reservoirs get full.  

[Ham]

It is my understanding that it was the area below Newport (Augusta?) that was the hold up this time ; not that it makes any difference up here 

 

[dtrs5kprs]

6 minutes ago, Ham said:

It is my understanding that it was the area below Newport (Augusta?) that was the hold up this time ; not that it makes any difference up here 

 

Six of one, half dozen of another, unfortunately.

[Quillback]

18 minutes ago, Ham said:

It is my understanding that it was the area below Newport (Augusta?) that was the hold up this time ; not that it makes any difference up here 

 

Newport gauge is at about 25 feet right now, based on their operation procedures it needs to be down to 14 (and that's if the reservoirs are 70% of capacity) before they can move water out.  They can do some emergency stuff to some degree, but as far as I can tell they are held hostage by the Newport gauge.

[Devan S.]

I did see something interesting yesterday. The corps is posting regular updates the last couple of days on FB and they are taking a lot of heat via the comments. I did however see an interesting chain of events yesterday though.

At 8:38 am they posted they would open BS between 11 and 12. 

At 10:34 am they came back and said they would reschedule to later in an effort to crest the pool at 695 and allow the uncontrolled flows of the Buffalo to pass so they were not adding to peak flows. 

However looking at the data for yesterday: BS crested more or less between 6 and 9 am below 695.  Along with that....looking at the USGS gages for Buffalo River at St. Joe it didn't really begin rising until 9 am. and Harriet didn't start rising until the afternoon. Now both rises were on the scale of 3-4k cfs peak stream flow. Even then neither gage has dropped over 1000 CFS since the peaks yesterday respectively.

Basically I could argue upon the data that I see BS never peaked at 695 and/or that the change in schedule of the release did anything to accommodate the actual floodwater from the Buffalo. In fact best I could tell the less than 1000 cfs between peak of the buffalo to now is negligible in the grand scheme at Newport. 

However the big change I did see was it went to a live stream of the dam opening for Bull Shoals and subsequently Beaver each of which have over 40k+ views.  

I'm a pretty staunch supporter of the corps and their policy. I'm also sure their social media department and their actual engineering is separated. The whole thing however does stink to me of manipulation to garner views on social media. At a glance, I don't believe the timing ultimately makes a difference in lake levels or significantly river levels between yesterday morning and yesterday evening but they timing and the number of views does make a big difference especially when both of your reasons for the delay are effectively refuted by your data. I'm sure I've got my tin foil hat on but for someone that has long been an avid supporter of theirs it does have me questioning something here. 

  

 

 

[roy_eros]

Some models, while far out and not super accurate are suggesting a tropical storm in the Gulf the first half of June. 

[Quillback]

39 minutes ago, roy_eros said:

Some models, while far out and not super accurate are suggesting a tropical storm in the Gulf the first half of June. 

I hope that doesn't happen.

[Phil Lilley]

55 minutes ago, roy_eros said:

Some models, while far out and not super accurate are suggesting a tropical storm in the Gulf the first half of June. 

Can you post the url for this image please?  Thanks

[roy_eros]

This is where that model came from. Again this far out probably not reliable. Worth keeping an eye on though. 
 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2020052718&fh=6