Is it really that cold?

[Woodland Artisan]

6 hours ago, Devan S. said:

Don't get me wrong, I was out this morning pre-daylight checking ponds and feeding cows spent most of the day yesterday prepping outside, I know its cold and the wind is brutal but is it really that cold out or has the last 10 years or so of "mild" winters really made us forget about winter?

It IS that cold.  Like you, I've been out chopping water tanks for the cattle the last few days and plan to for at least a few more.  And, they aren't my cattle anymore!

We've had a couple of cold snaps over the past 15 years but none that I remember for (what they're calling for) this long.  I don't remember when it was ... maybe 12 years ago (?) that I had to take someone over to Joplin and took along the fly fishing gear and did a little casting into Shoal Creek south of it.  About every 5-6 casts I had to clear the ice from the line guides.  That was, I think, -3F and the first time I remember it going below zero in SW MO except for maybe a brief time at night.   I think there was another time just a few years ago that it dipped below zero around here but that was very short.  Otherwise, I can't remember a time that it got much below 10F for much time.  And I've worked outside, farm and otherwise, nearly every day in every weather for 50+ years.

What I have noticed is that, yes, people new to the area, either by birth or moving, have seen a much different climate than what I and the family are used to in the MO/AR Ozarks.  It used to be far more snow and stayed cold rather than the recent (~20 years) 2-4 inches of snow (if that) that stays around for a day or two.  Northern Arkansas used to get the ice storms sort of regular. Now, Southern MO does and AR gets mainly rain.  Of course, not every year is the same but the trends have been obvious for a lot of years now.  The last 15 years of (certainly) mild winters, in general, here have been the exception compared to the previous 40 in our families' experience.

Used to, I enjoyed flipping through the family "watch book".  It was a daily/weekly record of the weather (and very early on, the animals, too) that got started quite a long time ago for some reason.  And various family members would just add to it.  But, that was destroyed about 40 yrs ago in a church fire.  It stretched back to the early 1800's, I believe.

[Al Agnew]

Wait a minute...don't you guys remember the several "polar vortexes" that hit a few years ago, maybe three years ago?  Maybe none of them lasted more than four or five days, but that was a cold winter with several days of weather colder than what it looks like we will get this time.  I remember a guy I knew decided to take his jetboat out on the Meramec on the first day after one of those vortexes had passed.  The river wasn't completely frozen over but there was plenty of shelf ice coming much of the way to the middle of some of the pools.  But he ran upstream with no problems.  His problems were coming back downstream...his wake broke off a lot of the shelf ice, and it jammed up in the riffles!  

[Devan S.]

I do remember them......as I recall it was very dry at the time and I don't remember any cases of ice or snow of significance with it. Maybe flurries?

I don't recall talk of natural gas delivery issues and/or electrical co-ops being at peak usage and asking users to be cautious about power usage either during that times. 

Saw on FB this evening the Southwest Power Pool is declaring an energy emergency alert and asking all utility members to conserve energy for the next 48 hours. 

Don't get me wrong its cold and the wind sucks but seems like a lot of extra going on beyond the bring your pets indoors, check your neighbors, have an emergency kit, and don't expose skin that you normally get when it gets cold from the news. 

[MOPanfisher]

I remember a lot of cold winters, the closest we came to knowing what the temp was, was an old thermometer on the outside of the window.  Didn't really matter chores had to be done anyway hearing that it was below zero just made yiu feel colder.  We used to get a big snow followed by a week or so of sub zero temps, I always piled the snow I had to move out of the driveway and buried the well house and the yard hydrants so they didn't freeze.  Last 20 years or so, winter hasn't amounted to much, which I am totally OK with.

[Jerry Rapp]

9 hours ago, Al Agnew said:

Wait a minute...don't you guys remember the several "polar vortexes" that hit a few years ago, maybe three years ago?  Maybe none of them lasted more than four or five days, but that was a cold winter with several days of weather colder than what it looks like we will get this time.  I remember a guy I knew decided to take his jetboat out on the Meramec on the first day after one of those vortexes had passed.  The river wasn't completely frozen over but there was plenty of shelf ice coming much of the way to the middle of some of the pools.  But he ran upstream with no problems.  His problems were coming back downstream...his wake broke off a lot of the shelf ice, and it jammed up in the riffles!  

I was remembering that year while I was reading this thread.  We got t-boned here in town during the middle of them by a guy going 5 mph coming out of the Post Office parking lot.  Checked my files and it was March 3, 2014.  As you mentioned Al, we had 3 or 4 of those Vortex's in a row.  Time sure does fly.

[Terrierman]

17 hours ago, Devan S. said:

I do remember them......as I recall it was very dry at the time and I don't remember any cases of ice or snow of significance with it. Maybe flurries?

I don't recall talk of natural gas delivery issues and/or electrical co-ops being at peak usage and asking users to be cautious about power usage either during that times. 

Saw on FB this evening the Southwest Power Pool is declaring an energy emergency alert and asking all utility members to conserve energy for the next 48 hours. 

Don't get me wrong its cold and the wind sucks but seems like a lot of extra going on beyond the bring your pets indoors, check your neighbors, have an emergency kit, and don't expose skin that you normally get when it gets cold from the news. 

I used to work for one of the Electric Co-ops.  The reason they want you to conserve energy is simply money.  The total cost of electricity to distribution co-op is based on both demand and usage.  The rates to co-op consumers don't fluctuate with actual cost so the incentive is to keep cost down by shaving peak demand. 

Wholesale power providers do experience higher costs to meet peak demands.  Have to fire up gas turbines, use available hydro and in the olden days even old repurposed submarine diesel fired generators.  And peak demands require them to keep their reserve generation capacity ready to go which costs money, and operating costs for peak generating capacity is usually quite a bit higher than operating costs for base generation capacity.  So in the end, it makes sense and it's really only fair.

[Basfis]

Rolling blackouts with gas wells freezing. Thank heavens we are going green.... I don’t recall the coal plant freezing up....

[Devan S.]

26 minutes ago, Terrierman said:

I used to work for one of the Electric Co-ops.  The reason they want you to conserve energy is simply money.  The total cost of electricity to distribution co-op is based on both demand and usage.  The rates to co-op consumers don't fluctuate with actual cost so the incentive is to keep cost down by shaving peak demand. 

Wholesale power providers do experience higher costs to meet peak demands.  Have to fire up gas turbines, use available hydro and in the olden days even old repurposed submarine diesel fired generators.  And peak demands require them to keep their reserve generation capacity ready to go which costs money, and operating costs for peak generating capacity is usually quite a bit higher than operating costs for base generation capacity.  So in the end, it makes sense and it's really only fair.

I figured that was at least part of the case. 

 

Looks like they are doing rolling blackouts across TX/OK right now. Surely its at a point that its really peak capacity if they are willing to go to blackouts in the middle of the weather like it is. 

Does bring up some good points about electrification and a path forward for the future. 

[MOPanfisher]

5 minutes ago, Devan S. said:

I figured that was at least part of the case. 

 

Looks like they are doing rolling blackouts across TX/OK right now. Surely its at a point that its really peak capacity if they are willing to go to blackouts in the middle of the weather like it is. 

Does bring up some good points about electrification and a path forward for the future. 

They are doing rolling blackouts in spfld too according to City Uilities.

[ness]

We're getting rolling blackouts around here. Nothing at my house yet.

https://www.kansascity.com/news/local/article249265505.html