TR Lake Level going forward

[wily]

It is pouring here in Joplin....has been for about 30 minutes.  Looks like lighter rain behind it on radar...but big line of rain headed east.  Stay safe and god bless 

[Phil Lilley]

We've had 2.5 inches so far today but not even close as much west of here - over TR.  North - James River - got more but not much over an inch.   Another line coming through but it's not dumping a lot of rain, yet.  It's moving pretty fast.

BS got HAMMERED!  2-5 inches of rain.

Just got an email from the Corps saying they are going to release water at TR "this weekend".  I don't see how with BS being in its position.  TR will get to flood stage sometime in the next 3-4 days unless the rain models are wrong.  And so far, for most events, they've understated the rain.

I'll get another email later today with specifics.

[Flysmallie]

We have had a ton of rain in Springfield and some more on the way. And all of that will be headed down the James. 

[dtrs5kprs]

1 hour ago, Devan S. said:

That's what has me confused on why it was added. 500,000 represents double the max inflow that has been recorded in the history of Table Rock Lake. Were talking about flood water down the james/kings orders of magnitude larger than they ever have ran.

Which begs the question.....If Table Rock is the last dam to fill based on the current water control plan(which it is) the only conceivable use of the auxiliary spillway  would be in situations when Bull Shoals was already nearly at the top of its spillway. 

Conceivably the auxiliary spillway would only be used if the the capacity of the first was not enough right? So wouldn't that in theory threaten a Bull Shoals too?
 

Yep.

Remember the panic 936 caused.

[dtrs5kprs]

1 hour ago, skeeter said:

931 is going to happen if all the rain predicted daily thru 5/28 hits us since we have this saturated soil over the entire drainage area.  .90" at Baxter so far at 0900 5/22 and a lot more seen on the radar coming up from the SW.  If they cannot release water from Bull due to downstream high water on the White and the lower Mississippi then TR is going to have to be the catch basin.  Another good fry survival year ?  

Maybe, if it didn't flood out all the eggs already dropped. That's a grim thought.

[vernon]

Historically and in a perfect world Bull Shoals has always been "The Alamo".

Sometimes though (and this appears to be one of those times) that duty falls to Table Rock.

Could get very interesting and not in a good way if this pattern holds for any length of time.

[Phil Lilley]

Auxiliary spillway being used would take out all of down town Branson up the hill to the hospital, might take out BS Dam unless they match the flow but then there's the initial push of water they'd have to control.  Then everything below BS - how many towns?

They (Congress) needs to rethink this whole process.

I misspoke... congress doesn't think.

A hydrologist engineer needs to come up with a new plan cause this one isn't working.

[Devan S.]

31 minutes ago, Phil Lilley said:

Auxiliary spillway being used would take out all of down town Branson up the hill to the hospital, might take out BS Dam unless they match the flow but then there's the initial push of water they'd have to control.  Then everything below BS - how many towns?

They (Congress) needs to rethink this whole process.

I misspoke... congress doesn't think.

A hydrologist engineer needs to come up with a new plan cause this one isn't working.

The dam itself WITHOUT the aux spillway is rated for 500,000 cfs....which is 2X greater than the historical MAX inflow Table Rock has ever seen based on the presentation the corps shared. 

So my question is why would you even add the aux spillway? The James, Kings, Beaver and would each have to be well over 100,000 cfs sustained(think about the magnitude of that  number for a second) Not counting all the smaller feeders. Not to mention you would have to drastically mis-match outflows to inflows to not be able to catch up. 

Is the Aux spillway at a higher level and maybe used in the event TRL got to high and damaged the control of the gates? Like a safety backup? I just can't see a reasonable need for 500,000+ CFS without Beaver failing which I don't see anyway TRL holds it back well enough to prevent failures throughout the system. 

Still the top of flood pools are 1130, 931, and 695 respectively but we clearly know we can get levels higher than that based on history so what is the actual critical level? It seems the water control plan which is very clear suddenly becomes murky at best once we pass the top of the flood pools.
 

I realize I keep repeating myself but this stuff interest me....guess I should have gone down the hydrologist engineering path instead.....I just don't see the need or the fear of the aux spillway.....but you can bet were about to see some big releases across the board soon.

 

[vernon]

Yep.  If Bull is The Alamo then the emergency spillway is Armageddon.

[Terrierman]

4 hours ago, dblades said:

Just wait till they have to use that new spillway.....

That would fall all the way into bad territory.