Fuel

[Jerry Rapp]

3 years ago this discussion wasn't even thought of.  The economy was great, energy independent, lowest unemployment in history, no new wars.  Memories are sure short for some folks.

[ColdWaterFshr]

2 hours ago, Jerry Rapp said:

3 years ago this discussion wasn't even thought of.  The economy was great, energy independent, lowest unemployment in history, no new wars.  Memories are sure short for some folks.

Jerry, Jerry, Jerry.

[Jerry Rapp]

i see one of the 30% came out from hiding..........

[Flysmallie]

8 hours ago, Jerry Rapp said:

3 years ago this discussion wasn't even thought of.  The economy was great, energy independent, lowest unemployment in history, no new wars.  Memories are sure short for some folks.

If we were energy independent then why were they buying so much from other countries? 

[tjm]

The last time this country was energy independent was probably when wind power was king. We got enough windbag politicians  to power the world, we'd do even better if we could convert   bs to joules.

[bfishn]

Here's an incredible real-time resource for oil and gas info;

https://oilprice.com/

 

 

[Al Agnew]

10 hours ago, Jerry Rapp said:

3 years ago this discussion wasn't even thought of.  The economy was great, energy independent, lowest unemployment in history, no new wars.  Memories are sure short for some folks.

That was in 2019.  If you look at graphs of economic measures, they would show more or less steady upward trends beginning in 2010 or 2011, trends that simply kept going upwards at about the same rates through 2019.  That includes employment trends.  And we have no idea whether those trends would have continued if it wasn't for Covid.  But Covid did happen.  Did it just hasten the crash from the inherent weaknesses in the economy?  There were plenty of economists who said, continuously, that all those upward trends were bound to come to a screeching halt at some point.

[MoCarp]

 

[MoCarp]

 

[dan hufferd]

On 3/27/2022 at 11:13 PM, Al Agnew said:

Who gets oil out of the ground in the U.S.?  The oil companies.  The oil companies are multi-national.  They are in it to make as much profit as possible.  They get their oil from wherever they can make the most profit.  Like it or not, U.S. oil is not cheap oil.  Not only do the oil companies have to adhere to environmental regulations that some other countries don't bother with, they have to get the oil by fracking, or drilling in cold seas, or in the Arctic.  Was the U.S. oil independent?  Nope.  The U.S., on average the last decade or so, produces something like 18% of the world's oil.  But not all that oil goes to U.S. refineries.  And here's what people don't seem to realize...during 2020, the last year of Trump's administration and the first Covid year, there was less oil produced in the U.S. that there will be this year, and about as much as there was in 2021.  2020 saw a big drop in oil extraction in the U.S.  And yet during 2020 gasoline prices were not much over $2 a gallon.  Why?  Because DEMAND had dropped precipitously with Covid.   And why did U.S. production drop so much in 2020?  Because with low demand and very low price at the pump, it was no longer profitable for the oil companies to extract and sell U.S. oil, so they shut down a lot of operations, preferring to get their oil from cheaper places and ship it to the U.S.

So in 2021, demand started to rise with the easing of Covid restrictions.  And so did prices of gas.  Yup, Biden did a few things that were unfriendly to the oil companies...BUT, none of them were responsible for reducing U.S. oil production NOW.  And most of them are not even in effect now because they are wending their way through the courts.  

So why aren't the oil companies getting a whole lot of oil from U.S. sources NOW?  Because once you shut down production at a site, it takes a while to get things back up and running.  But again, by the end of this year, U.S. oil production will probably be back up to somewhere around 2019 levels, before Covid.  But do you think that gasoline prices will be at 2019 levels?  Dream on.  The oil companies are milking this for all it's worth, and it doesn't help that things are pretty tense right now with the Russia thing, and everybody is afraid of what the future holds, so will continue to make as much money as they can right now.

Fact is, the policies of any presidential administration have far less impact on oil prices than world affairs in general do...because those oil companies are multi-national, and really are more or less monopolies, or at least they completely collude with each other to keep the prices at levels where they can maximize profit.  Gasoline prices dropped like a rock at the end of the Bush administration, skewing what was a very high average gas price during most of his administration.  Why?  The Great Recession.  They rose during the Obama administration.  Why?  Coming out of the Great Recession.  They dropped near the end of the Obama administration because there was a glut of oil, which remained the case during the Trump administration...until Covid.  Then there was still more oil being produced than the demand supported, even with drops in production, so oil remained cheap.

Electric vehicles?  The auto companies are reading the handwriting on the wall.  In 10 years EVs will make up a significant percentage of all new vehicles.  If battery technology continues to advance, it might come sooner than that.  And THAT will reduce demand for oil.  But how much will it affect price?  Who knows?  Maybe the holdouts who continue to buy and use gasoline powered cars will be willing to pay high prices for that gas.  The oil companies will do everything they can to keep their profits up.

It's a changing world, folks.  Things are weird right now for a multitude of reasons, and it sucks.  And things are going to get weirder in the next 10 years.  Doesn't matter who is in power.  Vote for whoever you want, but don't expect miracles if your guys win.  If you can't afford the gas to play now, don't expect it to automatically go down when the other party is in power.  Start planning for a future of high gasoline prices, and figure out how to afford your fun.

And by the way, if it costs you $50 to drive to the lake now, it still cost you $25-30 in 2020.  The question is not whether you can afford the $50, it's whether you can afford the $20-25 MORE it cost you than it did in 2020.

Smart man, thanks 👍