Table Rock Holding Steady to Raising

[Quillback]

Something I saw in today's paper, lower White is flooding, could be one of the reasons they aren't releasing water. 

The National Weather Service expects the White River to crest at 36.5 feet in Des Arc on Wednesday. Flood stage there is 24 feet.

If the river reaches the expected height, it will be the third-highest recorded in its history, only bested by the 39.4-foot mark set on May 7, 2011, and the 37.3-foot reading measured on Feb. 2, 1949.

Once the White River crests in Des Arc, it will remain at that level for several days before beginning a very slow decline, said meteorologist Dennis Cavanaugh of the National Weather Service in North Little Rock.

Because the Mississippi River is rising, he said, drainage from the Arkansas River into the Mississippi River will be slow. The White River runs into the Arkansas River.

[tapout]

I thought for sure the world revolved around table rock!!?

Believe me I wish it would recede about 7 feet for my own personal usage Launch ramps submerged, parking non existent. I might feel different If I had a farm down around the Mississippi River.

COE does what they can given bureaucracy limitations(as Bill mentioned), the water on the ground, and the imminent forecast. It is so easy to arm chair quarterback. Don't get me wrong as I have seen COE make a few dumb decisions; however this go around it seems so far their on top of it to whatever ability the government and God lets them be.

I can't even keep the water from running in my garage door when it rains hard so I won't get too critical.

 

[vernon]

38 minutes ago, Quillback said:

Something I saw in today's paper, lower White is flooding, could be one of the reasons they aren't releasing water. 

The National Weather Service expects the White River to crest at 36.5 feet in Des Arc on Wednesday. Flood stage there is 24 feet.

If the river reaches the expected height, it will be the third-highest recorded in its history, only bested by the 39.4-foot mark set on May 7, 2011, and the 37.3-foot reading measured on Feb. 2, 1949.

Once the White River crests in Des Arc, it will remain at that level for several days before beginning a very slow decline, said meteorologist Dennis Cavanaugh of the National Weather Service in North Little Rock.

Because the Mississippi River is rising, he said, drainage from the Arkansas River into the Mississippi River will be slow. The White River runs into the Arkansas River.

Lots of really good and pertinent information there Quill.

Considerations are too numerous to list when plotting out the strategy for events of this magnitude.  

As I mentioned earlier, it's flat out impossible to look at this from the perspective of any one lake or region and hope to discern any reasonable understanding of what's going on and what needs to be done to restore any semblance of normalcy.

Thanks! 

[skeeter]

Severe flooding at record levels coming from the Black River affecting NE and E Arkansas reportedly limits what BS can discharge until the Black recedes.  http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/breaking-levee-breaches-along-swollen-black-river-near-pocahontas-arkansas/70001570

The Black is a tributary of the White entering at Jacksonport AR. 

[Sore Thumbs]

My whole point is due to the fact that everyone knew the rain was coming. Why not start dumping a steady flow several days  before the rain hits so lakes can hold more water ?  I know I don't know all the factors but the math should be simple. I hope all those affected by the flooding  are ok and don't have spend a bunch of money getting their lives back in order. Thoughts and Prayers to those affected. 

[Ellros]

1 hour ago, Sore Thumbs said:

My whole point is due to the fact that everyone knew the rain was coming. Why not start dumping a steady flow several days  before the rain hits so lakes can hold more water ?  I know I don't know all the factors but the math should be simple. I hope all those affected by the flooding  are ok and don't have spend a bunch of money getting their lives back in order. Thoughts and Prayers to those affected. 

   Because they literally can't.  The factors discussed in that link prevent the Corp from doing that, even if the math says different.  May sound stupid, but it's the truth.

  But in the Corps defense, they have done something like that...  back in 2010 or 2011 (forget)?  The Corp released water from the Missouri river reservoirs, in order to make room for the spring meltwater.  We all remember what happened then...  the Missouri flooded major areas of NE, IA and MO.  I-29 north and south of Council Bluffs, IA was closed for weeks.  The gov't paid out a ton of money for that issue, both in repairs to roads and levees, and in damages to farmers.

[vernon]

7 hours ago, Sore Thumbs said:

My whole point is due to the fact that everyone knew the rain was coming. Why not start dumping a steady flow several days  before the rain hits so lakes can hold more water ?  I know I don't know all the factors but the math should be simple. I hope all those affected by the flooding  are ok and don't have spend a bunch of money getting their lives back in order. Thoughts and Prayers to those affected. 

How did they"know" the rain was coming?  Because the weatherman said so?  How many threads are there on this forum alone about about the accuracy rate of that bet?

How many times has the forecast declared a 100% chance of severe stroms and heavy rains and we've gotten nary a drop?  I don't know the number either but it's way way more than one.

Draw the water down, the rain never comes and now everybody sits high and dry for the entire year and the COE not only loses millions in power generation dollars but gets sued for many times more than that for breaching hundreds of legally binding federal contracts. 

Homeowners can't access their docks, boat ramps are rendered useless and resort and marina owners go out of business as an entire season of recreation and summer vacations is lost.  

Not much of an alternative.

The current situation is bad but not dire and is only for the short term. With a little luck, things will stabilize to the point that Memorial Day weekend is salvageable and the remainder of the year will proceed as per usual and the resort owners will be able to recover and have a decent year. 

In the end, that's the COE's primary mission - to minimize damage and loss during major flood events to whatever degree possible. 

Everthing else is pretty much gravy and not the function of the COE. 

[Sore Thumbs]

Vernon. Most of the time I agree but Ronnie Milsap could have seen that one coming. 

[Deadstream]

21 hours ago, vernon said:

In the end, that's the COE's primary mission - to minimize damage and loss during major flood events to whatever degree possible. 

 

Yep.     They are darned if they do and darned if they don't.   Thankless job.

silly filter won't let me say da insert m here ned

[Phil Lilley]

Steve Bays, Corps Little Rock, said in a conference call last week that BS couldn't release water until 7 days after the White crested at Newport, Ar.  If it crested Wednesday, they may start releasing in a couple of days.  We'll see.

The Corps forecast site says BS will crest on May 14 at 692 feet.  That's 3 feet short of flood pool levels.  Bays said they were going to balance the lakes as to volume until BS can start releasing water.

We've seen (Taney) 20,000 cfs of water since last Wednesday.