TR Lake Level going forward

[bobby b.]

Recently we have hired a professional dock mover for our dock as the existing slip owners will not help move it and I have done it for years and am tired of doing it.  There is more to this story but it is besides the point.

This professional dock mover indicates he is connected well to the COE and they have told him that they intend to hold TR at 925 for one month (which is where it is now) and if needed go to 931 before any MAJOR release.  

What have you heard and/or what do you think?

Bobby

[LD Fisher]

OMG  I hope that's not factual, but Beaver and Bull are close to their flood levels and Table Rock is the only lake with room. 

[dtrs5kprs]

1 hour ago, bobby b. said:

Recently we have hired a professional dock mover for our dock as the existing slip owners will not help move it and I have done it for years and am tired of doing it.  There is more to this story but it is besides the point.

This professional dock mover indicates he is connected well to the COE and they have told him that they intend to hold TR at 925 for one month (which is where it is now) and if needed go to 931 before any MAJOR release.  

What have you heard and/or what do you think?

Bobby

Sounds about like every other flood year.

This was pretty obviously coming when Beaver got within a foot of max flood last month. 

[Bill Babler]

Glad you got someone to take care of the dock.  That is a very dangerous job especially when you get on our end of the age growth rate.

Thanks for the report.  Sounds right, but COE  can change there plans quicker than a gal can change cloths.

[Devan S.]

Exactly per the water control plan so I would say that's exactly what they will do. Only complaint is his hold at 925 is nothing more than a guess based on the Newport gauge on the white river. 

More rain and the gauge doesn't go down and it'll be more than a month. Likewise once all the lakes hit maximum flood pool they wont suddenly start drawing them down, they will do nothing but pass inflow until the gauge at Newport falls into the zone that allows them to release. 

[snagged in outlet 3]

2 hours ago, Bill Babler said:

can change there plans quicker than a gal can change cloths.

That's not been my experience...  She wants to change outfits but it's never quick.

[vernon]

Dang guys.

My apologies.

I never intended to leave behind THAT big of a mess.

You'd have thought I actually did stay an extra week.

Hope the forecasted weekend monsoon spares you.

However, since I'm now home the odds are the Kansas City area gets forty days and forty nights.☔

Sorry Dave...........

[fshndoug]

I never really knew why we get so much rain around KC,thanks Vernon

[mojorig]

Here is a link to the Water Control Plan that Devan S. is referring too.

White River Water Control Plan

 

Here is information from USACE that Phil posted in a recent post.

" As you are aware, the lakes are high.  The four-lake system is above 80% full and rising, with less than four feet of flood storage remaining for Beaver, Bull Shoals and Norfork.  Downstream regulating stages are 10 feet above normal and rising as well.  We currently have no plans to increase releases from the lakes.  Doing so would require a deviation from the WCP and would be detrimental to our Flood Risk Management mission.  This is the reason we have a surcharge pool.  When rainfall occurs in the basin the runoff is estimated by the forecaster.  When enough runoff is forecasted to fill the flood pool, the surcharge may begin.   To get to a surcharge situation we would need around 1.5" above Beaver, 2" above Table Rock, 3" above Bull Shoals and 1" above Norfork.

The current QPF estimate for Thursday - Tuesday is around 1.5"  widespread.  This would be enough to require Beaver and Norfork to spill somewhere around 10,000 cfs each depending on the timing and rate.  This amount could also drive Table Rock within 0.5 foot of surcharge and Bull Shoals within 2 feet."

[dtrs5kprs]

1 hour ago, vernon said:

Dang guys.

My apologies.

I never intended to leave behind THAT big of a mess.

You'd have thought I actually did stay an extra week.

Hope the forecasted weekend monsoon spares you.

However, since I'm now home the odds are the Kansas City area gets forty days and forty nights.☔

Sorry Dave...........

Yeah. You did some of your best work this month.